Chicago Mixed: Beans And Corn Lower, Wheat A Tad Higher
22/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans finished the day with losses of around 1-4 cents, having been down in double digits at one stage in overnight trade. Monday night's USDA crop progress report was a bit bearish, showing the 2013 US soybean harvest at 63% harvested and good/excellent conditions at 57%. Prices in excess of USD13/bu probably also generated some farmer selling. Taiwan's BSPA bought 120 TMT of US beans for Jan/Mar shipment. Oil World estimated world soybean production at 281.3 MMT, up 5.4% versus 267.0 MMT in 2012/13. They estimated 2013/14 global soymeal production at 187.8 MMT versus 178.4 MMT a year previously. Dr Michael Cordonnier estimated Brazil's 2013/14 soybean crop at a record 88.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. Reuters report that Agricola, one of Brazil's largest soybean producers, plans to increase it's soybean planted area for 2013/14 by a whopping 23%. Ag Rural said as of Oct 18 Brazilian soybean planting is 19% complete versus 20% a year ago. Dr Cordonnier estimated Argentina 2013/14 bean crop at 55.0 MMT, also unchanged from his previous estimate. Chinese industry analysts forecast their Oct bean imports at 4.562 MMT, unchanged from a previous estimate. They see bean imports rising to 6.2-6.5 MMT in November and 6.5-6.8 MMT in December. Alliance Investment Bank estimated China’s 2013/14 soybean imports at 65.0 MMT, up 8.3% from a year ago, but 4 MMT below the current ambitious looking 69 MMT forecast by the USDA. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.02 1/4, down 1 cent; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD12.97 1/2, down 3 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD416.10, up USD0.40; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.52, down 12 points.
Corn: Corn closed 5-6 cents easier, with last night's crop progress and conditions maybe also a bit bearish for corn. "Corn maturity advanced to 94% ripe and 'safe from frost' - this indicates kernel filling was virtually finished before freezing temperatures developed last weekend," said Martell Crop Projections. South Korea's Nofi are tendering for 140 TMT of optional origin corn for March shipment. Dr Cordonnier estimated Brazil's 2013/14 corn crop at 70.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 72.0 MMT. He forecast Argentina's 2013/14 corn crop at 25.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. The Ukraine corn harvest is halfway done at 13.8 MMT. Russia's corn harvest is 40% complete at 5.1 MMT. Safras e Mercado said that as of Oct 18 the Brazilian corn crop is 56% planted versus 49.4% a year ago. IMEA estimated Mato Grosso's corn planted area at 3.36 million hectares versus 3.7 million a year ago. They forecast the Mato Grosso corn crop at 16.3 MMT versus 22.5 MMT a year ago. This falling out of love with corn is being replicated across Brazil. In Parana state, the Brazilian Secretary of Agriculture estimated the 2013/14 corn area at 699,000 hectares, down 20% from a year ago. The weekly US ethanol production report comes out tomorrow, last week's grind was 869,000 barrels/day versus the circa 900,000 bpd needed to hit the USDA's target for demand from that sector. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.38 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.51, down 5 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed 1 to 4 cents higher on the day. Question marks remain over the potential size of Argentina's 2013/14 wheat crop. Agritel estimated it at 10.1 MMT. Whist the Argentine Ministry seem to have admitted that last week's 8.8 MMT forecast was erroneous they haven't yet issued a revised estimate. Conspiracy theorists suggest that the withdrawal of the number may have been to avoid the suggestion of a farmer-upsetting export ban prior to the upcoming weekend elections. Only time will tell. The weather in the Black Sea finally seems to want to continue to co-operate with harvesting and planting of winter grains. Recent warmer and drier conditions are forecast to continue until the end of the month. The Russian grain harvest is past 90% complete at 88 MMT, versus 71.9 MMT this time a year ago. The wheat harvest is almost 95% done at 52.9 MMT, along with over 90% of the barley crop at 15.6 MMT. Ukraine's grain harvest meanwhile currently stands at 47.1 MMT off almost 80% of the planned area. Winter plantings in Russia are now almost 80% of the original government target at 13 million hectares. Jordan bought 100 TMT of optional origin milling wheat for Feb shipment. US winter wheat planting is in line with normal at 79% done, and good/excellent crop conditions of 65% are promising for a very good crop in 2014 at this early stage. Informa Economics also forecast the 2014 all wheat planted area up 1.6 million acres on the USDA's estimate for 2013. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.00 3/4, up 1 cent; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.65 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.56 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents.
