Nogger's Blog

17/10/13 -- Soycomplex: US government employees at the USDA were back in work, although they announced that the October WASDE report, due last Friday, would not be released at all. Although others have been delayed in the past, this is apparently the first time in the history of the report than one has been cancelled entirely. Beans closed with decent gains on ideas that the USDA will announce a slew of export sales made during the shut-down within the next day or two. Trade ideas are that around 3 MMT of US soybeans have been sold during the closure. Taiwan's BSPA was confirmed to have bought 60 TMT of US beans for Feb/Mar shipment today. China sold 281,783 MT of the soybeans on offer in today’s government auction, 56.3% of what was offered. Wet weather continues to disrupt the US soybean and corn harvest, with estimates varying widely as to how far progressed things are. Hopefully we will get a crop progress report to clear things up on Monday night. "Weather conditions in the Midwest are set to turn sharply colder on the weekend. The first hard freeze of the season is expected Sunday morning in northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota. Late planted crops in the Northern Midwest have benefited from a prolonged stretch of warm weather, permitting crop development to advance. Soybean pod filling continued to progress in September, albeit at a slower pace than previously. Increasing September rainfall may also have benefited soybeans slightly. Time will tell if autumn warmth and increased fall rains made a positive difference in the yield," said Martell Crop Projections. Paraguay's President vetoed a proposal to slap a 10% export tax on soybeans. Funds bought an estimated 6,000 soybean contracts on the day. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.93 1/4, up 16 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD12.89 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD413.00, up USD9.20; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.12, down 25 points.

Corn: Corn was flat, with front month Dec 13 only posting a 5 cents trading range on the day. The trade is expecting the USDA to report some decent export sales made during the past few weeks of shut-down with prices at 3-year lows, but it is also thinking that the USDA could also raise US 2013 corn yields closer to 160 bu/acre in the November WASDE report. Shanghai's JC Intelligence say that China has bought 1.2 MMT of US corn this month. Trade talk suggests that China bought 300,000 MT of US corn on Monday/Tuesday for Jan/Mar shipment. Mexico is also thought to have been actively buying US corn. The trade is thinking that overall maybe around 3 MMT of US corn has been sold for export during the shut-down. Would a hard freeze this weekend damage US corn? "Corn in Minnesota was 41% ripe by September 29th, the last official data from USDA, before the government shut-down. Delayed maturity in corn was reported also in northern Iowa, Wisconsin and South Dakota. Late planting dates and cool summer growing conditions were responsible for delayed maturity in corn. However, now it is 3 weeks later, suggesting even late planted corn in the Upper Midwest corn is ripe and safe from frost," said Martell Crop Projections. Ukraine’s agriculture Minister raised the estimate for October grain exports to 3.0 MMT from 2.2 MMT previously, with mention of strong corn exports. Dry and reasonably warm weather there this week should have allowed for good progress to be made with the corn harvest. The Russian corn crop meanwhile is almost a third of the way through, producing 4.1 MMT to date. That suggests possibly a much larger crop than the 9 MMT that the USDA forecast in September. Hungary said that it is expecting to harvest a 6.7 MMT corn crop this year, and increase of more than 40% versus 2012. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.43, up 1/4 cent; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.55 1/2, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat: Wheat closed around 2-4 cents higher across the three exchanges. MDA CropCast raised their Canadian wheat crop estimate by 1.5 MMT from last week to 32.8 MMT, a more than 20% increase on last year and an all time high. They cut their Argentine wheat production forecast by 0.7 MMT to 10.9 MMT, although that would still represent a near 8% increase on last year's crop if true. Other estimates are a bit closer to 10 MMT, although the USDA are still stuck at 12 MMT. Russia has harvested 51.8 MMT of wheat off 91.8% of the planned area. This time a year ago it had harvested 39.4 MMT. Winter grain plantings are up 2.4 million hectares in a week to 11.6 million, as growers worked tirelessly to get the crop, mostly winter wheat, sown. Ukraine's Ag Minister said that maybe only 500,000 hectares of the planned winter cropping area might not get sown, far better than the earlier feared 1.5 million hectares. India raised the price it will pay farmers for wheat next year to around USD228/tonne at today's exchange rate to ensure strong plantings for the 2014 harvest, which begin any time now. Despite China's COFCO saying yesterday that they only expected Chinese wheat imports of 3-5 MMT this season, less than the 6 MMT that they are already said to have bought, there were rumours today that they had been in for 4 cargoes of Australian wheat and another of US origin. Japan bought 112 TMT of US/Canadian/Australian milling wheat for Nov/Jan shipment. Tunisia issued a tender for for 92 TMT of soft wheat and 67 TMT of durum wheat, both of optional origin for Nov/Dec shipment. Brussels only cleared 269 TMT of soft wheat export licences this week, well below the 839 TMT granted last week. Even so year to date licences total 8 MMT versus only 4.7 MMT this time a year ago. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.86, up 4 1/2 cents; KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.49, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.45, up 2 1/2 cents.