Nogger's Blog

20/11/13 -- Soycomplex: There wasn't a lot of direction today, with funds estimated to have been light sellers of around 1,000 lots each on beans and meal during the session. Physical demand for both remains strong, Vietnam bought 240 TMT of meal for Apr/Jun shipment in a tender today, but it was Argentine origin that they purchased, not US material. South Korea bought 30,000 MT of Indian/Chinese meal for Jan shipment, along with 40,000 MT of Argentine meal for Feb shipment. We will get a clue as to how well demand is holding up for US beans and meal with tomorrow's weekly export sales from the USDA. These are expected to come in at around 600-800 TMT for beans and 150-350 TMT on meal. Lanworth trimmed their forecast for the US 2013 soybean crop to 3.264 billion bushels from a previous estimate of 3.287 billion. They cut the 2013/14 world crop from 290 MMT to 289 MMT. The President of the Argentine Sunflower Association forecast sunseed plantings there for 2013/14 at 1.36-1.48 million ha versus the USDA's 1.65 million. Using the USDA's yield projection that would cut the crop to around 2.5-2.7 MMT. At it's peak fifteen years ago the country was harvesting in excess of 7 MMT of sunflower seed, but government taxes now make the crop far less viable, he said. Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.73 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $12.64 1/4, unchanged; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $407.00, down $1.90; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.32, up 33 points.

Corn: The corn market finished around a cent lower amidst light fund selling (net an estimated 2,000 lots on the day). Lanworth estimated the US 2013 corn crop at 13.911 billion bushels versus a previous estimate of 13.944 billion. However, they pegged the 2013/14 global corn crop at 963.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 958.0 MMT. China's 2014/15 corn crop was forecast at a record 220 MMT. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 corn area at 3.87 million hectares, down 12% from 4.4 million last season. South Korea bought 121 TMT of US corn for Apr/May shipment at around $240 C&F, along with a slightly cheaper 63 TMT parcel of Black Sea corn ($237.68 C&F). The IGC estimated China's 2013/14 corn imports at 7.0 MMT versus 3.7 MMT last season. Customs data shows that Japan imported 1.185 MMT of corn in September, up 5% on a year previously. Imports from the US only accounted for 55% of that, versus 73% in September 2012. Japan's September corn in feed usage was 41.8% versus 42.5% a year previously. Weekly US ethanol production came in at 904,000 barrels/day, down 23,000 bpd from the previous week. UkrAgroConsult estimated Russia's corn crop at 11 MMT versus 10.2 MMT previously. They see exports at 3.3 MMT versus 1.9 MMT in 2012/13 and the USDA's current 2.5 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are around 600-800 TMT. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.17, down 3/4 cent; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.25 1/4, down 1 cent.

Wheat: Wheat also ended generally marginally lower on the day. The USDA reported a private sale of 110 TMT of US SRW wheat to Egypt for 2013/14 delivery. Whilst there's been no confirmation yet from India that they've accepted any of the bids in their wheat tender that closed Monday, state-owned firm PEC issued another tender to export 155 TMT of wheat by Jan 25. There are trade reports that the Indians may look to release around 2 MMT of wheat onto the world market in the Jan/Mar period. Lanworth estimated the global wheat crop at 707.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous forecast. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 wheat crop at 9.1 MMT, up from the 2012/13 crop of 8.7 MMT, but at the lower end of trade forecasts. The IGC estimated China’s 2013/14 wheat imports at 7.2 MMT versus 3.3 MMT in 2012/13 and the current USDA forecast of 8.5 MMT. Frost in the east and rain/hail in the west may have taken the top off the Australian wheat crop. A Reuters poll estimated that at 24.0 MMT, compared to last month's survey forecast of 25.3 MMT, although that's still a better result than the 22.1 MMT harvested in 2012/13. Jordan cancelled a tender to buy 100 TMT of wheat. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales for wheat are around 300-500 TMT. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.47 1/4, down 3 cents Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.95 1/2, down 3 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.97 3/4, unchanged.