Chicago Beans Extend Rally, Corn And Wheat Fall

12/11/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans extended their rally into a fifth session, closing with gains of around 10-14 cents, on strong export demand. The Nov 13 contract, which expires on Thursday, posted its highest daily close since Sep 27. The USDA reported the sale of 116,000 MT of US soybeans to China and 35,000 MT of soyoil to unknown. Goldman Sachs estimated 2014 US soybean plantings at 83.0 million acres, up sharply from the 2013 estimated area of 76.5 million. AgRural said that Brazilian soybean planting is 59% complete versus 48% a week ago and 53% a year ago. They estimated the 2013/14 soybean area at a record 29.329 million hectares, up 5.8% from a year ago. Mato Grosso soybean planting is said to be 85% complete, up from 72% a week ago and versus 79% a year ago. They said that as of Oct 31st Brazilian growers had sold 34% of their 2013/14 soybean crop versus 58% a year ago. Oil World forecast the global soybean crop at a record 285.3–286.3 MMT in 2013/14, up from a previous estimate of 281.3 MMT and the USDA's estimate of 283.5 MMT. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 79.69 million bushels versus the 60-70 million expected, the third week of robust shipments of around 80 million bushels. After the close they said that the US 2013 soybean harvest was 91% complete versus expectations of 91-95% and in line with the 5-year average of 92% done. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $13.19 1/4, up 11 1/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $13.14 1/2, up 13 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $427.70, up $5.60; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.75, up 33 points.

Corn: Corn closed a couple of cents easier on the notion that "big crops get bigger" and that maybe the little mini-rally of the past few days has been overdone. There's also the lingering fear that the EPA will lower the ethanol mandate for 2014, potentially reducing US demand for corn at a time when that needs to stay high to absorb a near 14 billion bushel crop. Goldman Sachs cut their 3 and 6 month corn price forecast to $4/bu versus a previous forecast of $4.25/bu. They estimated US 2014 corn plantings at 92.5 million acres, down almost 3% from the 2013 estimated area of 95.3 million. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2013/14 Argentine corn crop at 25.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. He said that about 40% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted. He has the Brazilian crop down at 68.5 MMT. Safras e Mercado said Brazil has planted 85.7% of their corn crop, up from 77.3% a week ago and versus 70.8% for the 5-year average. The Russian corn harvest is 62.8% done at 8.0 MMT, say the Ag Ministry. There are reports of Russian corn being sold into South Korea. Weekly export inspections for corn were disappointing at 16.7 million bushels versus the 30-35 million that the trade was expecting. The USDA reported the 2013 US corn harvest as 84% complete after the close, up from 73% done a week ago and in line with trade expectations. Funds were estimated as being net sellers of around 5-6,000 corn contracts on the day. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.32 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.44, down 2 1/2 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed around 1-3 cents lower across the three exchanges as export interest in US wheat wanes. Today's weekly export inspections of only 12.22 million bushels were poor and towards the low end of fairly meagre expectations. The USDA said that US winter wheat is currently 95% planted versus 93% normally at this time. Crop conditions were pegged at 65% good/excellent versus 63% a week ago and only 36% this time last year. Emergence is at 84% versus 80% normally. Winter plantings in Ukraine have caught up markedly in recent weeks, with 94% of the originally forecast wheat area now in the ground along with 99% of the winter barley crop. Around 80-85% of Ukraine winter grains are said to be in good shape. Emergence is at 90%. The wheat harvest is around 20% done in Australia, with good to excellent yields and quality coming in from Western Australia. Conditions in eastern states are more variable however and estimates on final Australian production this year still differ quite widely. The Ag Ministry in Kazakhstan said that the country had exported 1.0 MMT of grains in October, up 62% from September and up 4.4% versus a year ago. They said that the harvest there is now more than 99% complete at 20.8 MMT in bunker weight. The Russian grain harvest is 93.5% done at 92.6 MMT, with 97.4% of the wheat crop in at 53.7 MMT. Pakistan's winter wheat crop will be all in by the end of the month, with an anticipated area of just under 9 million hectares producing a forecast crop of 25 MMT versus 24.2 MMT earlier this year. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.45 1/4, down 1 cent; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.03 1/4, down 3 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.01 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents.