Nogger's Blog

11/11/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans corrected lower for most of the day, but closed around 2-5 cents firmer at the finish. There were no weekly export inspections, or a crop progress report from the USDA due to the Veteran's Day holiday. These will be released tomorrow. Trade estimates are that the US soybean harvest will be around 91-95% complete versus 86% a week ago. Export inspections are forecast in the region of a robust 60-70 million bushels versus over 80.5 million last week. Safras e Mercado said that Brazil has planted 59% of their soybean crop versus 54% a year ago and 49% normally at this time. In the top producing (and generally early harvesting) state of Mato Grosso beneficial October rains mean that plantings are 84% complete versus 78% a year ago and 69% on average. Another round of good weekend rains in Argentina continue to improve soil moisture conditions there. They are said to have planted around 12% of their bean crop and 80-81% of their sunflower crop. Strategie Grains estimated the EU-28 rapeseed crop at 20.8 MMT (the same as the USDA said on Friday) versus 19.5 MMT a year ago. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $13.08, up 2 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $13.01, up 5 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $422.10, down $0.20; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.42, up 18 points.

Corn: The corn market extended Friday's "sell the rumour buy the fact" movement, closing around 8 cents higher. The USDA called this year's corn crop a shade under 14 billion bushels, and comfortably a record, but fell short of the 14.2-14.3 billion crop that some were estimating. Slightly lower 2013/14 ending stocks than anticipated (at 1.89 billion bushels versus an average trade guess of just over 2.0 billion) might be almost 3 times those of 2012/13, but they weren't quite as high as expected. Essentially, the report was bearish, but not as bearish as feared. This appears to have been sufficient to encourage fund money to close out and take profits on some of their record long short position in corn, buying in an estimated net 10,000 contracts today. The trade is expecting the US corn harvest to be around 85% done, up 12 points on a week ago, in tomorrow's delayed crop progress report. Weekly export inspections are anticipated to come in at around 30-35 million bushels, similar to last week's 31.3 million. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.34 3/4, up 8 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.46 1/2, up 8 cents.

Wheat: Wheat was the weakest of the trilogy for a second day. CBOT wheat has now closed lower on front month Dec for eight out of the last 10 sessions, and on both days it didn't conform to that pattern it was only a quarter of a cent higher. US wheat is overpriced into many international homes, and still runs at a huge premium to corn into domestic feed homes in the US. Meanwhile the USDA said last week that 63% of the nation's winter wheat crop in good/excellent condition, up 2 points on the previous week and compared to only 39% a year ago. "Kansas, the leading winter wheat state, has received abundant rain this autumn. The 5.8 inches of rain that accrued since September 1 is 23% above normal. This has promoted favourable germination in wheat and high plant populations. A favourable beginning usually (though not always) promotes a high yield in the harvest," noted Martell Crop Projections. Crop conditions are expected to hold steady to improve 1-2 percentage points in tomorrow's USDA report. Winter wheat plantings are expected to be around 93-95% complete. Weekly export inspections are forecast to be only around 11-16 million bushels. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.46 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.06 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.04 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents.