EU Grains Mixed In Quiet Trade

28/11/13 -- EU grains closed mixed in a quiet session with America closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Jan 14 London wheat ended down GBP0.50/tonne at GBP164.25/tonne, Jan 14 Paris wheat finished EUR1.25/tonne firmer at EUR208.75/tonne, Jan 14 Paris corn EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR176.50/tonne, whilst Feb 14 Paris rapeseed rose EUR0.25/tonne to close at EUR379.00/tonne.

Fresh news was extremely thin on the ground, as might be expected on day like today, so there was never likely to be that much action.

The IGC upped their forecast for the world 2013/14 wheat crop by 2 MMT to 698 MMT, whilst also increasing their global corn production estimate by a similar amount to 950 MMT.

"So far this year, (grain) harvests have generally been better than expected, with the global total now placed up 9% year on year. While some of the output increase is set to be absorbed by higher use, a substantial surplus is expected and end-season stocks are seen up by 41 MMT year on year at a four-year high," they said.

"Looking ahead to 2014/15, winter wheat planting is nearly complete in the northern hemisphere, and the global wheat harvested area is projected to expand by 1.4%, to about 223m ha. The condition of the US crop appears to be much improved year on year," they added.

Ukraine's corn harvest is 90% done at 27 MMT. Russia's grain harvest now stands at almost 95 MMT, including 54 MMT of wheat, 16.3 MMT of barley and almost 10 MMT of corn. The latter being off 77.6% of the planned area.

Russagrotrans estimated Russia's Nov grain exports at 2.4 MMT, followed by 1.8 MMT in December. Total 2013/14 exports were forecast at 22.2 MMT including flour and pulses, or 21.1 MMT excluding them. They see wheat exports at 15.6 MMT, with those of corn at 2.7 MMT and barley at 2.5 MMT.

APK Inform said that Russian growers in the Rostov region are reporting winter wheat emergence at 90-100%, and that crop are generally in good condition going into dormancy.

India are tendering to sell 370 TMT of wheat, with 200 TMT coming out of the west coast port of Mundra, 100 TMT out of the east coast port of Kakinada and 70 TMT from Chennai in the south. All of that is for Jan 4-Feb 3 shipment.

"Winter rapeseed plantings for harvest 2014 have been completed in Europe, with good establishment reported across the region. Strategie Grains estimates a slight reduction (-1%) in the EU-28 rapeseed area to 6.6 million ha for 2014/15," said the HGCA.

Lanworth yesterday estimated the 2014/15 US wheat crop at 63.0 MMT, up 8.6% form 58 MMT this year. That is heading into winter dormancy in pretty good shape, certainly when compared to 12 months ago. The current low world corn prices could also give spring wheat plantings in the US a boost.