EU Wheat Stagnant, Awaiting USDA Impetus

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 19:17 | Categorized as

04/11/13 -- EU grains closed mixed once more with Nov 13 London wheat ending GBP0.25/tonne firmer at GBP164.75/tonne, whilst Jan 14 was down GBP0.50/tonne also at GBP164.75/tonne. Nov 13 Paris milling wheat settled EUR3.25/tonne easier to close at EUR204.50/tonne.

Nov 13 Paris rapeseed fell EUR3.00/tonne to EUR373.00tonne, whilst about to expire Nov 13 Paris corn closed unchanged at EUR163.25/tonne. The latter had a particularly choppy day, trading down to EUR159.25/tonne at one stage, the lowest level for a front month since June 2010.

The rest of the market remains generally in "no man's land" where it has largely been for the past fortnight awaiting this Friday's USDA WASDE report. Two weeks ago London wheat was EUR165.50/tonne, and Paris wheat EUR204.75/tonne, so as you can see there's been very little change overall since then.

The Kazakh grain harvest is now 98.2% complete at 20.6 MMT in bunker weight. A clean weight harvest of 18.5-19.0 MMT is expected by the local Ag Ministry, versus one of only 12.8 MMT a year ago.

The Russian grain harvest is 92.7% done at 91.2 MMT. Wheat accounts for 53.7 MMT of that, along with 15.8 MMT of barley and 6.9 MMT of corn.

Ukraine meanwhile has harvested 89% of it's 2013 grain crop, producing 52.32 MMT so far versus 41.39 MMT a year ago at this time. The corn harvest is two thirds done at 19.96 MMT - on track for record production this year.

Ukraine has exported 9.65 MMT of grains so far this year (to Nov 1), up 12.4% on a year ago. Wheat accounts for 5.4 MMT of that along with 1.8 MMT of barley and 2.4 MMT of corn.

APK Inform said that Ukraine exported 12.7 MMT of corn in 2012/13, down 16.4% on shipments of 15.2 MMT in the previous season. The EU took over half of their 2012/13 exports.

Tunisia bought 92 TMT of soft wheat and 50 TMT of barley in a tender. Saudi Arabia reportedly bought 720 TMT of EU/US/South American/Australian hard wheat for Jan/Mar shipment in a tender. Otherwise the tender line up is pretty thin.

The large disparity between corn and wheat values, on both sides of the Atlantic, remains an upside limiting factor for wheat.