Nogger's Blog

19/12/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with modest gains despite weekly export sales of 415,500 MT – a marketing-year low - falling short of trade expectations for sales of 700-900 TMT. There were also sales of 80,200 MT of beans for 2014/15. Meal sales of 77,100 MT for 2013/14 were also a marketing-year low. Nevertheless, the sales pace of beans in particular has been frenetic since the beginning of the 2013/14 season. Weekly shipments are showing signs of tailing off a little, but this week's bean export total of over 1.5 MMT is still more than respectable. The US has now shipped 20.5 MMT of beans in 2013/14, and has another 18.5 MMT on the books waiting to go. That gives total commitments of 39 MMT against the USDA's target for the entire season of 40.1 MMT. That's 97% compared to last year’s 84% and the 5 year average of 73% at this time. Talk persists that some of these outstanding soybean sales to China won't get shipped. Only time will tell. Argentine weather looks a little less threatening today. "La Pampa in southwest Argentina was hit with strong thunderstorms overnight, receiving 1-2 inches of rainfall. A small area of northern Buenos Aires also received one inch of rain (25 mm). The new forecast calls for scattered showers here and there. Temperatures would continue hotter than normal however with highs in the 90's F," said Martell Crop Projections. Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $13.27, up 3 cents; Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $13.19, up 5 1/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybean Meal closed at $442.10, up $0.90; Jan 14 Soybean Oil closed at 39.33, up 27 points.

Corn: The corn market finished with gains of around 5 cents on the day on fund buying/short covering approaching year end. Weekly export sales came in at a nice 827,100 MT, above trade expectations for sales of 550-750 TMT, and adding support. The USDA also separately reported sales of 130 TMT of US corn sold to South Korea for 2013/14 shipment, along with 111,280 MT for 2013/14 and 16,256 MT for 2014/15 delivery to unknown. Weekly corn shipments were 693,400 MT with China (245,500 MT) the top destination despite the current rejection problems due to around 30% of US cargoes being shipped to China said to contain traces of the non-approved MIR 162 variety. The Buenos Aires Exchange estimated Argentina’s corn planting at 62.5% complete versus 55.2% a week ago. Strategie Grains forecast the EU-28 corn crop at 64.7 MMT in 2014, a marginal 0.3% rise on this year's production. They foresee a 2.2 MMT decrease for Romania and Bulgaria and a net 2.4 MMT increase coming from France, Germany, Hungary and Italy. The USDA's FAS said that Bulgaria had exported over 1.3 MMT of corn so far this season, an increase of 1300% on this time last year. They see final 2013/14 Bulgarian corn exports at a record 1.9 MMT. This year's corn crop there was up more than 50% to 2.6 MMT. Eastern Europe and the FSU countries remain aggressive sellers of what has been a record corn crop for many in the region. Israel bought 95 TMT of optional origin corn in a tender, thought like to end up coming from the Black Sea. Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.30 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents; May 14 Corn closed at $4.38 1/2, up 5 cents.

Wheat: Despite rising corn, wheat simply couldn't manage a rally closing lower on all three exchanges. Minneapolis wheat has now been lower every day since 9 Dec. Weekly export sales of 656,100 MT for delivery during the 2013/14 marketing year were up 76% from the previous week and 47% up from the previous 4-week average. Brazil took one cargo. That was also better than the modest market expectations of 300-500 TMT. There was a story on Reuters that one of Brazil's biggest flour mills has been told that it won't be getting the Argentine wheat it already has purchased for January delivery. Earlier in the week reports suggested that 1.6 MMT of 2013/14 Argentine wheat was still awaiting government approval to be shipped. CBH Group said that they expect this season's grain harvest in Western Australia to break all previous records. The company typically handles around 90% of the state's production, and has received 9.2 MMT of wheat, 3.5 MMT of barley and 1.7 MMT of canola to date, and grain is still coming in. They said that in the previous record year of 2011/12 deliveries were still being made up until February. Iraq bought 350 TMT of Australian wheat in a tender for Mar/Apr shipment. Australia's bumper crop, and Canada's record one are proving to be a thorn in the side for US wheat. Strategie Grains forecast the EU-28 all wheat crop in 2014/15 at 145.7 MMT, a 2% increase on this year. Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.10 3/4, down 2 cents; Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.52 3/4, down 1 cent; Mar 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.46 1/4, down 1/2 cent.