Nogger's Blog

30/01/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans managed to recover some of yesterday's losses as weekly export sales trumped expectations of around 5-600 TMT coming in at a net 494,800 MT of old crop and a further 371,000 MT of new crop. Some had been suggesting that old crop sales could be negative. China was confirmed as a buyer of 251,300 MT of the old crop, including 233,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, whilst "unknown" showed up with an overall net decrease of 610,300 MT. Actual soybean shipments themselves were in excess of 2.1 MMT - a ten week high and now total 30.2 MMT. Outstanding sales are nearly 12.4 MMT, taking total commitments to 42.6 MMT - already beating the USDA target for the entire season of 40.7 MMT. So the US now has nearly 105% of the USDA's projected export total committed, and 74% of the target has already been shipped. Agroconsult said Brazil’s 2013/14 bean crop could easily top 90 MMT. Good early yields are being reported in Mato Grosso. Brazil are said to have now loaded their first new crop soybean cargo destined for China, and are projecting shipping 2.5 MMT out in February, which would be a record volume for the month. Some reports suggest that Argentine farmers till carrying old crop beans may be forced to sell them before the harvest starts to pay taxes and input costs. Chinese and Malaysian markets will be closed tomorrow and Monday. The IGC forecast the world soybean crop at a record 288 MMT in 2013/14, up 3 MMT from last time and up 6% versus 271 MMT last season. Consumption however was also increased 3 MMT, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 29 MMT. The world canola/rapeseed crop is seen up 11% year-on-year due to Canada's bumper year, with ending stocks rising 58% versus 2012/13. Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $12.75, up 5 3/4 cents; May 14 Soybeans closed at $12.61, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 14 Soybean Meal closed at $425.20, up $1.90; Mar 14 Soybean Oil closed at 37.07, down 3 points,

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-6 cents firmer, supported by old crop weekly export sales of 1,837,900 MT, which were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. There were also net sales of 105,700 MT for 2014/15. Trade expectations were only for sales of around 6-900 TMT. Japan was the biggest buyer taking 797,800 MT of the old crop. Weekly shipments just topped 1 MMT, with no sign of China as the MIR 162 dispute rumbles on. The US now has 14.3 MMT of corn already shipped this season, with a further 17.6 MMT on the books waiting to go. That takes total commitments to 31.9 MMT versus the USDA's target for the season of 37 MMT, or 86% of that aim. The five year average for this time is only around 62%. In addition, the USDA announced 127,000 MT of US corn sold to unknown for 2013/14 delivery under the daily reporting system. The IGC raised their world 2013/14 corn production estimate by 9 MMT from last month to 959 MMT, which is 98 MMT more than a year ago - a hike of 11.4%. Consumption was also raised, but not by as much, and falls below global production levels by 31 MMT. World ending stocks are now seen at 158 MMT, 24.4% up on last season. The EU granted 358 TMT worth of corn import licenses this past week, taking the marketing year to date total to 7.1 MMT versus 6.6 MMT this time a year ago. The weather outlook in South America looks largely non threatening, but has irreversible damage already been done in Argentina? Only time will tell. Brazil's soybean harvest is slightly behind schedule, which may be delaying second crop corn planting a little. Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.33 1/2, up 6 cents; May 14 Corn closed at $4.39 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly a little firmer, but it was far from an impressive turnaround following new multi-year lows set yesterday. Weekly export sales of 794,900 MT for delivery during the 2013/14 marketing year were up 89 percent from the previous week. Japan (174,800 MT), South Korea (162,400 MT), Nigeria (125,700 MT), the Philippines (98,000 MT, including 23,000 MT switched from unknown destinations) and Taiwan (74,000 MT) were the main buyers. Actual shipments came in at 422,000 MT. Shipments to date now total 20.9 MMT, with a further 5.3 MMT outstanding, taking net commitments to 26.2 MMT which is 86% of the USDA's target of 30.5 MMT for the season. MDA CropCast hiked their forecast for the 2014/15 Indian wheat crop by a hefty 5.9 MMT from just last week, now pegging production there at 97.4 MMT, a 6.45% jump on last year. Some think that output could actually reach 100 MMT or more. India sold 150 TMT of its 2013/14 surplus wheat to Bangladesh today. Japan bought 179 TMT of a mixture of US and Australian wheat. Jordan are tendering fro 100,000 MT each of milling wheat and feed barley of optional origin. Stats Canada come out on Tuesday with their Dec 31st stocks estimates. A Reuters survey has all wheat stocks estimated at 28.9 MMT - a 22 year high and up 40% from a year ago. Barley stocks are estimated at 7.1 MMT - up 35% from a year ago. The IGC estimated the 2013/14 global wheat crop at 707 MMT, up 9 MMT from their previous forecast and nearly 8% up on a year ago. They actually dropped consumption by 1 MMT from last month to 691 MMT, taking ending stocks up by 7 MMT to 188 MMT - an 8.7% jump versus last season. The world 2014/15 wheat crop was tentatively estimated at 697 MMT, a 1% drop on this year as yields return closer to average. Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.53 1/2, up 2 cents; Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.10 3/4, up 2 cents; Mar 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.97 1/4, down 3/4 cent.