Chicago Markets Narrowly Mixed
28/01/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed narrowly mixed, with yesterday's news that weekly export inspections came in at a whopping near 74 million bushels continuing to lend support. Shipments only need to average 12 million bushels/week to reach the USDA projection for the 2013/14 marketing year. Talk of potential Chinese cancellations remains just talk, they took 46 million bushels of this week's total themselves. The domestic US crush is also supportive, up 2.5% year on year in the Oct/Dec period, according to NOPA. Acute weakness in the Argentine peso means that growers there continue to hoard beans. The peso fell 16% against the dollar last week alone, and the central bank are now said to be so short of funds that they can't continue to support it. Chinese industry analysts estimate their Jan bean imports at 5.39 MMT, falling to 4.75 MMT in Feb. Their Lunar New Year celebrations start at the end of the week. Oil World forecast the global soybean crop at 287.8 MMT this year, up slightly from a previous estimate of 287.6 MMT and up 7.75% versus the 2012/13 crop of 267.1 MMT. Brazil's crop was estimated at 89.5 MMT versus 89 MMT previously. Argentina's was cut from 55.5 MMT to 54 MMT. China's import requirement was seen at 70 MMT. Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $12.85 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; May 14 Soybeans closed at $12.71, unchanged; Mar 14 Soybean Meal closed at $428.60, down $2.30; Mar 14 Soybean Oil closed at 37.40, up 34 points.
Corn: The corn market closed barely changed and in a very narrow trading range. The USDA announced 110 TMT of US corn sold to Spain for 2013/14 shipment. Anecdotal reports out of Argentina suggest that the recent rains may have come a little too late for corn. In the US freezing cold weather is encouraging increased livestock feeding, reduced producer selling, and causing a potential short-term slowdown in movement of grains due to iced-up waterways. In addition "livestock producers have seen propane prices skyrocket as high consumption this winter has sharply diminished supplies. Minnesota is the leading US turkey state. Young turkeys require 90 F (32 C) while the full-sized birds need 45-50 F to develop normally, livestock producers say. If the heat goes down, turkeys become stressed and are prone to illness. Propane providers claim that in some areas only a 5-day supply of propane exists, due to strong demand and rapid consumption," said Martell Crop Projections. The US Energy Dept will report on the weekly US ethanol grind tomorrow. Last week's production was 905,000 barrels/day. Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.32, up 1/4 cent; May 14 Corn closed at $4.38, unchanged.
Wheat: The wheat market was also narrowly mixed across the three exchanges. Egypt bought one 60 TMT cargo of US SRW wheat in their latest tender, along with 180 TMT of Russian wheat. GASC's decision to cut the maximum moisture level permitted from 13.5% to 13.0% makes it more difficult for French wheat, but US and Russian wheat apparently found this not to be a problem. It's looking like Ukraine may have just about shipped all it's wheat and is now going to concentrate on marketing it's record corn crop. Japan seeks 179,343 MT of wheat for March shipment. Talk of possible damage to US wheat in the Midwest and Plains continues amidst the second hard freeze of the month. "Overwintering wheat may have suffered damage from the bitter cold, especially where winds have blown fields bare exposing wheat to the wind and cold. Kansas has received snow from time to time this winter. Periodic thaws have also occurred, melting away that protective snow," said Martell Crop Projections. Updated forecasts show the coldest temperatures for the western plains with some suggesting about 25% of the Kansas crop may be impacted. Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.66, up 2 1/2 cents; Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.22, down 1/2 cent; Mar 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.05, down 1 1/2 cents.
