Nogger's Blog

23/01/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a little lower, pressured by the jungle drums beating louder with regards to Chinese cancellations/switching US soybean purchases to Brazil. The USDA may shed some light on these rumours with tomorrow's weekly export sales report. For soybeans, that is expected to reveal sales of around 400-600 TMT. Remember that existing commitments are already in excess of 100% of the USDA's forecast for the season, so net sales of any magnitude would only tighten old crop availability even further. Strong domestic demand for meal is also supporting beans, although another rumour doing the rounds today is that Argentine meal is being shipped to the southeast US. Reuters carried a report that Argentine farmers are still holding 8.4 MMT of 2012/13 soybeans versus around 1.6 MMT a year ago as hedge against inflation and the falling peso. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the Argentine soybean crop by 1.66 MMT from last week to 55.12 MMT (the USDA are currently at 54.5 MMT). They left Brazil unchanged at 90.48 MMT versus the USDA's 89 MMT. Suddenly much wetter Argentine weather is finally seen as helping newly planted beans. Yet another rumour going around is of China rejecting Brazilian soybean oil for not meeting it’s standards. Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $12.77, down 2 1/2 cents; May 14 Soybeans closed at $12.62 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Soybean Meal closed at $418.70, down $0.70; Mar 14 Soybean Oil closed at 37.86, up 2 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 2 to 3 cents higher. Taiwan cancelled a tender for 60 TMT of US corn for April shipment. MDA CropCast cut their Argentine corn production estimate 170 TMT from last week to 23.92 MMT (the USDA are at 25 MMT). They more than compensated for that by raising their Brazilian corn crop estimate by 1.47 MMT from last week to 73.27 MMT (the USDA say 70 MMT). That hike came from "continued favourable conditions in most areas" they said. The Energy Dept reported weekly US ethanol production of 905,000 barrels/day, up sharply from 868,000 bpd last week, although it would seem that those figures were skewed to the low side due to the hard freeze of that week restricting movement of corn. Despite an improved weather outlook for Argentina, some think that the damage may have already been done - particularly for corn. "Rainfall has increased this week in Argentina with scattered strong thunderstorms, but crop damage was incurred from heat and drought previously. Two heat waves, one in December and another this month, have stressed corn and soybeans. Late-planted crops with shallow roots were most damaged by temperatures above 95 F and reduced rainfall," said Martell Crop Projections. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are all over the place, anywhere from 250-900 TMT I have seen. I'll go for around 500 TMT. Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.29, up 2 3/4 cents; May 14 Corn closed at $4.35 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market put in some decent gains for once, on strong world demand. Saudi Arabia tendered for 660 TMT of a hard/soft wheat mixture for April/June shipment. Ethiopia seeks 70 TMT of optional origin milling wheat. Iraq bought 350 TMT of wheat, including a rare US cargo. Japan bought 99,052 US wheat for Feb/March shipment. China supposedly bought 150-200 TMT of Australian wheat and is said to be looking to the US for more. Taiwan bought 73,400 MT of US milling wheat. Talk is that another Arctic air blast for early next week could bring threatening cold weather to parts of southeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri which do not have snow cover. Nebraska winter wheat could also be at risk. There are also growing drought concerns for wheat on the US central and southern plains. Movement of Canada's record 2013/14 wheat crop is being restricted by logistical problems, which aren't being helped by the freezing weather. They've got the wheat to sell, but they're struggling to physically get it to market. There's also talk of a sudden sharp drop in temperatures potentially putting unprotected crops at risk in Europe and the FSU. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 300-600 TMT. Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.70, up 8 3/4 cents; Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.32 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Mar 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.17 1/4, up 1/2 cent.