Chicago Firmer Heading Into USDA Report
08/04/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with the largest gains at the front end, regardless of fund re-positioning. The trade is now focussed on tomorrow's upcoming USDA WASDE report, which is expected to show an extremely tight old crop availability situation. US 2013/14 soybean stocks are expected to fall to 139 million bushels from 145 million last month. World ending stocks are forecast to fall 0.5 MMT to 70.14 MMT. Brazil's crop may shrink by 0.5-1.0 MMT from the 88.5 MMT forecast in March. Some suggest that production in Argentina may be raised 0.5 MMT to 54.5 MMT, although reports circulating today suggest that heavy rain now, in the midst of harvest, may cut output by as much as 1 MMT. Bloomberg reported that palm oil stocks in Malaysia are at their lowest level in more than 3 years. Fund buying in beans was estimated at around a net 5,000 contracts heading into tomorrow's report. May 14 Soybeans closed at $14.82 1/2, up 18 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.61 1/2, up 13 1/4 cents; May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $478.10, up $3.80; May 14 Soybean Oil closed at 42.11, up 68 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 6-8 cents firmer, with fund money stepping in for an estimated net 10,000 contracts on the day, despite a disruption to trading caused by "technical issues" in the electronic market. China have sealed a deal to import Brazilian corn. The USDA attache in China estimated the country's corn imports at 4 MMT this year versus the USDA's own estimate of 5 MMT. They said that 2014/15 corn imports will fall to 3 MMT and estimated Chinese corn production next season at 218 MMT. Tomorrow's USDA report is expected to show US corn stocks of just over 1.4 billion bushels at the end of 2013/14 versus the 1.456 billion estimated a month ago. Global stocks are estimated at 157.7 MMT versus 158.5 MMT last month. We will also get the usual weekly US ethanol production data tomorrow. Last week's output came in at 922,000 barrels/day, which is more than 10,000 bpd below the level required to hit the USDA forecast for the season. Warmer and drier conditions for the rest of the week may give US farmers in the Midwest the chance to get a bit of fieldwork done, although rain is back in the prognosis for early next week. May 14 Corn closed at $5.07, up 7 3/4 cents; Jul 14 Corn closed at $5.13, up 7 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market managed relatively modest gains, with tomorrow's USDA report likely to be of more significance for corn and beans than it is for wheat. US 2013/14 wheat carryout is estimated at 583 million bushels versus 558 million in March. World ending stocks are estimated at 183.65 MMT, which is little changed from last month. The USDA attache in China forecast their wheat crop in 2014 at 122 MMT, and estimated 2013/14 imports at 7 MMT (which is 1 MMT lower than the current official USDA figure). They said that 2014/15 Chinese wheat imports would fall to only 4 MMT. The USDA's FAS in Australia estimated the 2014/15 wheat crop there at 24.8 MMT, down from 27 MMT this season. Despite lower production though, the attache's office projected 2014/15 Australian wheat exports at 19.1 MMT versus 18.5 MMT this season. The USDA issued their first weekly crop progress report of the year. They said that on a national level 35% of the US winter wheat crop was in good/excellent condition, which was towards the top end of trade estimates. Kansas wheat is 29% good.excellent, but 27% poor/very poor. Oklahoma has no wheat rated excellent at all, and only 15% of the crop is seen as good. Almost half (48%) of the state's crop is poor/very poor, a percentage only topped by Texas which is 61% poor/very poor. May 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.81, up 4 3/4 cents; May 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.41 1/2, up 2 cents; May 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.23 1/4, up 1 cent.
