Nogger's Blog

03/04/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with the best gains at the front end once again. Weekly export sales came in at a net 66,200 MT for old crop, including one sale to China (51,200 MT), although there were also cancellations from unknown (92,500 MT). There were small net sales of 19,300 MT for 2014/15. Trade expectations were for old crop sales to be anywhere from 200 TMT negative to 200 TMT positive, and with new crop sales in the region of 300-550 TMT. The market seemed to think that anything that wasn't negative on old crop was bullish. Weekly shipments of 659,400 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destination was China (312,000 MT). The US has now shipped 97.3% of the USDA target for the season and total commitments, including unshipped sales of 4 MMT, remain at 107% of that goal. Old crop meal export sales of 307,800 MT for 2013/14 were strong, up 94 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. That also increases domestic US soybean demand. Informa estimated the Brazilian bean crop at 86.75 MMT versus a previous estimate of 88.8 MMT. FC Stone estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 87.64 MMT versus a previous estimate of 87.51 MMT. Informa raised its estimate for Argentina's soybean crop by 0.5 MMT to 54.5 MMT. The FAO cut their forecast for the global soybean crop in 2013/14 by 2 MMT from last month to 281 MMT "primarily on unfavourable weather conditions affecting Brazil’s crop." MDA CropCast forecast big soybean production increases for 2014/15 however, with the world crop up 8%, including US output up 12.6% to 97.71 MMT, Brazilian production up 10.8% to 95.67 MMT (both new records) and a 12.5% increase from India plus a 6.5% rise from Paraguay. Fund money was estimated at being a net buyer of around 3-4,000 bean contracts on the day. May 14 Soybeans closed at $14.75 1/4, up 13 cents; Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.54 1/4, up 13 cents; May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $480.10, up $3.60; May 14 Soybean Oil closed at 41.67, up 82 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4 cents higher, flirting with either side of $5/bu on front month May 14, before closing at exactly that level. Weekly export sales of 960,600 MT for 2013/14 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. There were several switches of sales from China/unknown into new buyers. There were also 221,400 MT worth of Chinese cancellations. Reuters reported that this takes the volume of US corn sales to China that have been confirmed by the USDA to more than 1 MMT. Separately, the Chinese Xinhua Daily reported that China had rejected a further 65,225 MT of US corn/DDGS due to unapproved GMO content. Weekly US shipments held up well at 1,425,700 MT, they were up 16 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Total US commitments on corn now match the USDA's target for the season. Note though that a much larger volume of that aim (18.5 MMT) is currently unshipped than is the case for soybeans. Informa now has the Brazilian corn crop estimated at 68.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 65.45 MMT. For the Argentine corn crop they now go 23.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 22.6 MMT. They also increased their 2014/15 outlook for Ukraine corn by 3 MMT to 26 MMT, raising plantings from 4.2 million ha to 4.7 million ha. FC Stone estimated Brazil’s corn crop at 71.24 MMT versus a previous estimate of 71.5 MMT. The FAO upped their forecast for the world 2013/14 corn crop by 4 MMT to a new record 1.01 billion tonnes "reflecting upward adjustments in several CIS and Southern American countries." They forecast 2013/14 world corn ending stocks up 46 MMT on last year (and 1 MMT more than last month) to 176 MMT. "Stocks (ending in 2014) are to replenish significantly as inventories rise in Canada, China, Ukraine and the US," they said. MDA CropCast forecast a rise in global corn production of 2.1% in 2014/15. They see the US crop rising 4.3% to 362.7 MMT, despite an anticipated decline in plantings, on improved yield prospects. Current US weather conditions are not however conducive to timely corn sowings. It's still early days though, and the US did harvest a record corn crop last year when plantings were also late. May 14 Corn closed at $5.00, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Corn closed at $5.05 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market recovered from two days of losses to finish with gains of around 5-9 cents across the three exchanges. "The bulls may view today’s trade constructive and might be right, but I view it as a toothless recovery after a sharp selloff," said Benson Quinn Commodities however. Weekly export sales sales of 336,400 MT for delivery during the 2013/14 marketing year were down 16 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. There were also sales of 310,500 MT for delivery during 2014/15. That was in line with trade estimates which were for sales of 200-400 TMT each for both old and new crop. Exports of 523,100 MT were in line with what we have seen recently. Total commitments are now at 95% of the USDA's forecast for the 2013/14 which ends in May. The 5-year average for this time is 98%. Informa had 2014/15 US winter wheat production estimated at 1.616 billion bushels, up 82 million from last year. They have the US hard red winter wheat estimated at 953 million bushels versus 744 million a year ago. They see US soft red winter wheat at 447 million versus 565 million a year ago. The US white wheat crop was estimated at 216 million versus 225 million a year ago. The total 2014/15 US winter wheat yield was estimated at 46.5 bu/acre versus 47.4 bu/acre a year ago. The FAO estimated the 2013/14 world wheat crop unchanged from last month, but up 56 MMT on a year ago at a record 716 MMT. Ending stocks were unchanged on a month ago, but up 21 MMT on a year ago at 179 MMT. "Stocks (ending in 2014) up sharply from their opening levels largely driven by higher inventories in Canada, China and the Russian Federation," they said. "In the US, winter wheat conditions are mixed and planted area is slightly down relative to last season. Continued dryness in the south-central US is a growing concern, however other wheat growing regions in the country are experiencing closer to normal moisture conditions supporting the winter wheat crop and the upcoming spring wheat planting," they added. MDA CropCast estimated the US 2014/15 all wheat crop down 1.1 MMT from last week at 57.9 MMT, a 1.4% drop on last year. Kuwait bought 30,000 MT of optional origin barley for July shipment. A Reuters poll estimated that Egypt would import 10.5 MMT of wheat in 2014/15 - similar to the USDA's forecast for 2013/14. May 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.76, up 6 3/4 cents; May 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.44, up 5 1/4 cents; May 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.30 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents.