Nogger's Blog

23/05/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day, but higher for the week, in what might best be described as light consolidation ahead of a 3-day weekend. US markets are shut Monday for the Memorial Day Holiday. The USDA announced 210,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown along with 120,000 MT sold to China for 2014/15 shipment. JC Intelligence estimated China’s May bean imports at 5.8-6.1 MMT, down versus 6.5 MMT in April. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that rain continues to hold up the soybean harvest there, which at 69.9% complete is up only 3 points on a week ago. Harvesting this time last year was 93% complete. Argentine growers have gathered 41.6 MMT so far, and the BAGE forecast final production this year at a record 55.5 MMT. Some growers are now harvesting beans wet and paying the drying costs rather that risk pods shattering, they said. Favourable planting weather remains in the forecast for the Midwest this weekend, with just a few scattered showers. This means that Tuesday's holiday-delayed crop progress report should reveal plantings of around 55-60% complete versus 33% a week ago, the trade expects. Even northern Midwest farms are now warming up. The current beans:corn price differential will be catching the eye of those yet to plant, possibly pushing soybean acres up a little more than the 81.5 million forecast by the USDA earlier in the month. MDA Weather Services are said to have estimated the 2014 US bean yield at 45.9 bu/acre, which is 0.7 bu/acre more than the USDA's current forecast. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $15.15 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $14.45 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $502.60, up $1.10; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.38, down 48 points. For the week front month beans were up 50 1/2 cents, with meal gaining $22.40 and oil down 37 points.

Corn: The corn market finished slightly higher on the day, but a little lower on the week. Trade was relatively quiet ahead of the long weekend, and the trading range was narrow. Various trade forecasts have US corn planting at 85-90% complete in next week's crop progress report from the USDA. Planting was 73% done as of last weekend and 86% complete this time a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported very slow progress with the Argentine corn harvest, which is now only 33.1% complete versus 30% a week ago and 50.5% a year ago. They estimated production at 24 MMT,unchanged from a week ago. Turkey is tendering for 70,000 MT of optional origin feed corn. The Turkish Statistical Institute estimated Turkey’s 2014 grain crop at 33.7 MMT versus the 2013 crop of 37.5 MMT. Corn production was forecast at 5.5 MMT versus 5.9 MMT in 2013. MDA Weather Services were reported to have estimated 2014 US corn yield at a record 167.5 bu/acre, which is even higher than the USDA's current 165.3 bu/acre. Everything would have to go right between now and harvest time to achieve this sort of figure, but anything is possible. "The 5-day forecast is significantly drier in northern corn farms, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. This would spur corn planting where seeding has been retarded by persistent cold. A few showers are possible over the next few days, but not heavy rain, allowing corn and soybean planting to make good progress. Strong sunshine would increase soil temperatures. Northern corn farms have been persistently cold, so this is a very favourable forecast," said Martell Crop Projections. Good rains meanwhile further south could also help corn. "Strong showers would continued in the Southern Great Plains where a trough of low pressure spins out waves of thunderstorms. Another 2-4 inches of rain is predicted in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Nebraska a key corn state is also expecting heavy rain along with southwest Iowa and western Missouri," they added. The French 2014 corn crop is now virtually all sown, and crop conditions show a marked improvement on a year ago. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.78, up 1 1/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.75 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents. Jul 14 was 5 1/2 cents lower on the week.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower once more, with yet another rally attempt caving in. Chicago wheat has now finished lower for 12 of the last 13 sessions - the exception being a 1/4 cent gain in Monday! Heavy rains for US winter wheat on the southern Plains is seen as bearish, although most think that these have come too late to make a dramatic difference to yields. "Stormy weather has developed in the US heartland producing drenching rains in wheat farms. Waves of strong thunderstorms have brought heavy soaking rain to Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Drenching rains are arriving too late in the growing season for strong improvement in the wheat yield. The heading and grain-filling stages are already well advanced," said Martell Crop Projections. Meanwhile "spring wheat is in jeopardy in North Dakota from excessive wetness. Only one-quarter of the crop was planted May 18, 2-3 weeks behind schedule. This is the US second largest wheat state behind Kansas. Spring wheat planting has begun in the Canadian prairies, though progress is slow, due to persistent cold spring temperatures," they added. Saskatchewan spring crops planting is 22% complete versus 15% a week ago, 27% a year ago and 29% on average at this time. Spring wheat planting is 20% complete. The head of Russia’s grain union said that persistant hot and dry weather is a risk for Russia’s grain crop, although rain could quickly change that. The Russian Ag Minister's estimate for a grain crop of 100 MMT this year is not a scenario he would like to see happen as it would depress prices, he admitted. The Turkish Statistical Institute estimated Turkey’s 2014 wheat crop at 19.8 MMT versus the 2013 crop of 22.1 MMT. Drought has been their problem this winter. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated that Argentina's winter wheat crop was 2% planted versus 3.2% a year ago. They see this year's wheat area at 4.3 million hectares, an increase of 18.8% on last year. The same rains that have disrupted Argentina's 2013/14 corn and soybean harvests, are also delaying fieldwork and wheat planting, although boosting soil moisture profiles, they added. The trade is expecting US 2014 spring wheat planting to be around 70-75% complete in Tuesday's crop progress report. Planting was 49% done versus the 5-year average of 68% last week. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.52 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.45, down 6 3/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.25 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents. For the week that puts CBOT wheat down 21 3/4 cents, with Kansas wheat 22 3/4 cents lower and Minneapolis down 13 3/4 cents.