Nogger's Blog

29/05/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed marginally higher, but essentially with little change. "The US producer has stepped to the sidelines with little to no old crop left to market and too busy planting to add to new crop sales especially with market some 35-cents off last week’s high," said Benson Quinn Commodities. That pretty accurately sums things up, it may be that we need to get a final idea on plantings at the end of June, and take a step closer to the 2014 US soybean harvest being the record breaking bin-buster that many expect before we see too much downside. MDA CropCast actually trimmed their forecast for US soybean production this year to 97.2 MMT (although that's still a record and up 12% on last year) due to a small acreage reduction. Reports of Chinese Letter of Credit problems abound, yet they still imported a record 6.5 MMT of soybeans in April. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that May imports will total 5.94 MMT, with those in June tailing off to just over 4 MMT. Oil World forecast a record large European rapeseed crop of 21.9 MMT this year. World production will however fall from 69.9 MMT last year to 68.3 MMT, largely due to a return to more "normal" levels in Canada (down 2 MMT to 16 MMT), but also with a drop from 4 MMT to 3.5 MMT from Australia. The global rapeseed crush meanwhile will increase from 62.8 MMT to 66 MMT, they said. Argentine officials said that their April soybean crush was 3.893 MMT versus 2.103 MMT in March and compared to 3.586 MMT in April 2013. Trade expectations for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around zero on old crop and maybe around 500 TMT on new crop. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.99, up 1 1/4 cents; Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $14.32 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $498.40, down $0.10; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 39.41, down 22 points.

Corn: The corn market finished lower, with fund money selling an estimated 6,000 contracts on the day. Some are saying that equities have now turned tables on the grains, and money is coming out of the commodities sector to go back into stocks and shares. There was also a report on Reuters that the deadly pig virus that has been sweeping the US is proving harder to eradicate than anticipated, and that may be having a negative impact on feed demand. The weekly ethanol grind came in at 927,000 barrels/day, up marginally on a week ago, but below the level required to hit USDA targets. China reportedly sold around two thirds of the 3.5 MMT of corn that they put up for auction today. South Korea's NOFI bought 120,000 MT of optional origin corn for Dec shipment. South Korea's KFA seek 60,000 MT of optional origin corn for Dec shipment. Israel bought 108,000 MT of corn of optional origin for July-Sept shipment. The IGC increased their forecast for the world 2014/15 corn crop by 5 MMT from last month to 955 MMT. They also raised ending stocks by 9 MMT from last month to 172 MMT, which is 8 MMT more than in 2013/14. They increased production in Europe from 65.3 MMT to 65.8 MMT, but cut Ukraine from 26.8 MMT to 26.5 MMT. The 2014/15 US corn crop was estimated at 350 MMT, unchanged from previously and only down marginally on last year's 353.7 MMT. Trade estimates for the USDA weekly exports sales report due tomorrow are 450-850 TMT. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.69 1/2, down 3 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.63 1/4, down 6 cents.

Wheat: I'm thinking of simply copying and pasting the same market report as yesterday, last week and the week before to see if anybody can spot the difference. "The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges, after another attempt to rally ultimately came to nothing." There you go, that should do it. This was the 15th lower close in the last 16 for Chicago wheat. That bit is new by the way, well sort of, I just added a one to both numbers. The IGC cut 3 MMT off their world 2014/15 wheat production estimate to 694 MMT, although with consumption trimmed by a similar amount ending stocks were left unchanged at an ample 187 MMT. Argentina's 2014/15 wheat crop was raised 1 MMT to 12.9 MMT, and Europe's was tweaked higher from 144.8 MMT to 144.9 MMT. There were no changes for Russia (51 MMT) or Ukraine (20 MMT). China's 2014/15 wheat imports are seen falling to 3 MMT from 7.6 MMT this season, which is in line with other trade estimates. The Chinese government sold less than 5% of the 717 TMT of wheat it had up for auction. MDA CropCast also raised their forecast for the Argentine wheat crop in 2014/15 to 12.9 MMT on the back of acreage increases, that's up 26.5% on last year's crop. Algeria was confirmed as having bought 700,000 MT of new crop French wheat for August shipment. Japan bought 98,483 MT of food wheat for June-Aug shipment from the US and Canada in a routine tender, but the market remains concerned that anything other than traditional homes for US wheat are buying from either Europe, the Black Sea, Australia or even India. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 200-600 TMT. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.32 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.30 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.14 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents.