MARS Forecast UK 2014 Wheat Yields At 8.19 MT/ha

13/05/14 -- The EU Commission's MARS unit forecast UK wheat yields this year at 8.19 MT/ha, up 11% on last year and almost 10% above the 5-year average (although that was probably depressed by a couple of dodgy years in the last five).

According to my records, that would be the second highest yield ever, beaten only by 2008.

If we use Friday's USDA planted area estimate of 1.95 million hectares, then we'd end up with a crop a gnat's chuff away from 16 MMT this year if MARS are proven to be correct.

They peg 2014 UK barley yields at 5.80 MT/ha, a small decline of less than 1% on last year's 5.85 MT/ha. They put UK OSR yields this year at 3.64 MT/ha, a mighty 22% leap over last year's disaster, and almost 7% above the 5-year average.

Doing the same calculation of USDA planted area multiplied by MARS's yield estimates then that gives us a potential UK barley crop of 5.68 MMT and a OSR harvest of 2.58 MMT this year.

All that little lot gives us a UK wheat crop 34% higher than in 2013, a barley crop that is 20% lower (although last year was of course unusually high - this is still more than we produced in 2012) and an OSR crop that is up 21% on a year ago.

Meanwhile the pound is as firm as Rolf Harris at a school nativity play. That won't help exports one little bit, but it will keep imported corn nice and cheap. No wonder I'm bearish.