On This Day In 2013

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:23 | Categorized as

09/05/14-- It's all very exciting isn't it, the USDA's first look into the 2014/15 crop year? What will they say? And how wrong will they ultimately proved to be, those hapless chumps in Washington?

I bet they were miles out last year, with their Spectrum ZX computer, blunt pencils, backs of fag packets and coloured crayons.

Or were they?

Woooo, I'm going all wobbly....I'm going back in time....

USDA May WASDE report day 2013. Man Utd, incidentally, are top of the premier league and have already won the show with one game still to play. Man Citeh, in second, are trailing 13 points in their wake. Everbody hates Ed Milliband. Things have changed a bit since then. Man Ure now trail Citeh by 20 points for a starter. At least there's some consistency when Ed Milliband is about though.

CORN

The USDA forecast US corn yields at 158 bu/acre. They finish up at 158.8 bu/acre, not a bad shout. They have the crop at 14.1 billion bushels. It ends up at 13.9 billion in January. They see world corn production at 966 MMT (that's currently 974 MMT prior to today's report). They estimate global ending stocks at 154.6 MMT (currently 158 MMT) and forecast Chinese imports at 7 MMT (now 5 MMT). Fair play.

SOYBEANS

The USDA forecast US soybean yields at 44.5 bu/acre. They finish up at 43.3 bu/acre, not too bad. They have the crop at 3.39 billion bushels. It ends up at 3.29 billion. They see world soybean production at 286 MMT (that's currently 284 MMT prior to today's report). They estimate global ending stocks at 75 MMT (currently 69.4 MMT) and forecast Chinese imports at 69 MMT (still 69 MMT). They have the Brazilian 2013/14 crop at 85 MMT (currently 87.5 MMT) and the Argie crop at 54.5 MMT (now 54 MMT). Get your coat Derek Acorah, there's a new kid on the block. Although you probably knew that already didn't you? Running Bear must have mentioned it surely?

WHEAT

The USDA forecast US all wheat production at 2 billion bushels. It ends up at 2.1 billion. Hums theme from Twilight Zone. They see world wheat production at 701 MMT (that's currently 712.5 MMT prior to today's report). They estimate Russia at 56 MMT (now 52 MMT), Ukraine at 22 MMT (same as now) and Kazakhstan at 15 MMT (now 14 MMT). OK, they didn't see Canada's 37.5 MMT crop coming (using a figure of 29 MMT last May), but who did, overall that's a pretty impressive set of predictions. Let's see if they can do it again today.

Wooooo, the voices are calling me back to 2014....hang on, I just want pop into William Hills to see what the odds are on Fergie leaving Man Utd and them subsequently sacking their new manager in his first season...what, 25/1? Erm yes I'd like to make a bet please.