Nogger's Blog

23/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with the best gains on the nearby months. Weekly export inspections of only 61,847 MT were poor, but they don't need to be large with the USDA target for the season already well within sight. Chinese customs data shows that they imported 5.97 MMT of soybeans in May, up 17% from a year ago. The vast majority (5.32 MMT) came from Brazil, with only 652 TMT originating from the US. They also imported 651 TMT of rapeseed, up 38% on a year ago. That takes Jan/May bean imports to 27.8 MMT, a 35% rise on the same period in 2013, of which 10.3 MMT came from Brazil and 16.9 MMT from the US. Cumulative year-to-date rapeseed imports are over 2.3 MMT, a 42% rise versus the same period in 2013. Oil World estimated 2014/15 global soybean output at a record 301.9 MMT versus a previous estimate of 301.2 MMT and up 6.3% from 284.1 MMT a year ago. They see global rapeseed output at 68.6 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 68.3 MMT, but down a little on 69.7 MMT a year ago. After the close the USDA said that 95% of the US 2014 soybean crop is now planted versus 92% last week, 91% a year ago and 94 % for the 5-year average. Emergence is at 90% versus 83% last week, 79% a year ago, and 3 points ahead of normal. Crop conditions fell one point from last week to 72% good/excellent, ahead of 65% a year ago. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.24 3/4, up 9 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.33 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $455.80, down $3.40; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.68, up 55 points.

Corn: The corn market started higher, but quickly gave up the ghost, closing near session lows with losses of around 8-9 cents. Weekly export inspections of 987,936 MT were decent enough, and in line with trade expectations. The marketing year-to-date total is now just shy of 37 MMT. China said that they'd imported just 79 TMT of corn in May. Year to date imports are 1.35 MMT, a near 11% decline on a year ago. The Chinese government is to attempt to auction off another 5 MMT of it's estimated huge 150 MMT surplus corn stocks this week. Last week's auction met with only a lukewarm response, with less than 1 MMT of the 5 MMT on offer actually sold. The USDA cut their corn good/excellent crop ratings by 2 percentage points to 74%. Last week's ratings were said to be the highest in 20 years, so a 2 point drop is hardly a disaster at this stage. Good/excellent a year ago at this time was 65%. The worst conditions are in Kansas where 51% of the crop is rated good/excellent and 10% already poor/very poor. North Dakota has the best corn crop conditions, with 85% of the crop rated good/excellent. Several states are around the 80% good/excellent mark including some leading producers like Iowa, Illinois and Ohio. Recent rains in Ukraine are said to likely be beneficial to newly planted corn there, where they are expecting their second largest crop ever, despite their various troubles. Ukraine new crop corn is said to be offered around $206 FOB the Black Sea. South Africa's CEC are expected to raise their forecast for corn production there this year to around 13.6 MMT, according to a Reuters survey. Anything over 13 MMT will be a 33 year high, they say. Fund selling was estimated at around a net 8-10,000 lots. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.44 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.39, down 9 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, with an attempt to rally soon fizzling out. Weakness in corn offered no support. Weekly export inspections of 581,483 MT were decent enough though. News that Egypt and Saudi Arabia bought wheat over the weekend was supportive, at least they are buying somebody's wheat, even if it isn't necessarily coming from the US. North America was an accepted origin in the Saudi tender. In the Egyptian tender US wheat was comfortably out-priced, even on an FOB basis before more expensive freight was added on. Chinese customs data shows them importing 226 TMT in May, a 20% decline on a year ago. Nevertheless, they've still imported 2.44 MMT of wheat so far this calendar year, more than double the volume shipped in during Jan-May 2013. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that Ukraine farmers have harvested 839,000 MT of grain off 306,000 hectares so far. Most of that is barley, although 25,000 MT is new crop wheat. Agritel said that Ukraine wheat prices had fallen 10% last week, which should enable exporters to offer new crop at around $240-245 FOB. SovEcon said that Russian FOB wheat prices on the Black Sea were down to $248-253 from $257-263 a week ago. IKAR said that Russian new crop barley prices were down $5/tonne on last week to around $217 FOB the Black Sea. The USDA said that the 2014 US winter wheat was 33% harvested, up from 16% a week ago and 2 points more than the 5-year average. Winter wheat good/excellent was unchanged on last week at 35%, which is 2 points behind year ago levels. Spring wheat emergence in 98% versus 95% on average. Spring wheat headed is 10% versus 16% normally. Spring wheat rated good/excellent is 71%, down a point on last week but one point more than a year ago at this time. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.79 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.14, down 6 3/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.85 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents.