Chicago Closing Comments
10/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans ended a little firmer heading into tomorrow's USDA report. China sold 134,528 MT of soybeans at auction, or around 37% of what was on offer. The reason for the low level of interest was said to be due to the fact that the beans on offer were mostly from the 2011 crop. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US soybean yields at 45.0 bu/acre versus a previous estimate of 44.5 bu/acre. He estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian soybean crop at 86.5 MMT, with Argentina at 55.0 MMT, both are unchanged from his previous estimates. CONAB lowered their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop to 86.1 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's WASDE report have 2013/14 US soybean ending stocks at 127 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 119–139 million and 130 million last month. New crop carryout is seen at a more generous 319 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 245-364 million and 330 million last month. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.62 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.29 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $484.50, up $2.30; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 38.94, down 34 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents lower. CONAB have the Brazilian corn crop estimated at 77.9 MMT versus a previous estimate of 75.19 MMT. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yields at 165.0 bu/acre versus a previous estimate of 164.0 bu/acre. He has the 2013/14 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT and the Brazilian corn crop at 74.5 MMT. Both are unchanged from previous his estimates. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 corn crop at 24.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 23.9 MMT. Argentina's corn harvest is being estimated at only 41% complete versus 77% on average for this time of year. Trade estimates for Wednesday's WASDE report have 2013/14 US corn ending stocks at 1.170 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 1.121–1.279 billion and the USDA's May estimate of 1.146 billion. Carry-out next season is seen at 1.716 billion, from a range of estimates of 1.405–2.282 billion and the USDA's May estimate of 1.726 billion. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.45 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.41 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market ended sharply lower, dragged down by corn. CONAB now have the 2014 Brazilian wheat crop estimated at 7.37 MMT versus a previous estimate of 6.88 MMT. That's sharply higher than 5.3 MMT a year ago, and also much higher than the USDA's current forecast of 6 MMT. High wheat prices relative to corn are encouraging increased wheat plantings in South America this year. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 wheat planted area at 4.4 million hectares, up 22% from a year ago. ABARES come out tomorrow with their Australian crop estimates. In tomorrow's WASDE report the US all wheat crop has an average estimate of 1.964 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 1.903-2.041 billion. The USDA's May estimate was 1.963 billion and the 2013 US all wheat crop was 2.130 billion. US 2013/14 wheat ending stocks are seen at 590 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 565-625 million and the USDA's May estimate of 583 million. US 2014/15 wheat carry out is forecast at 552 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 475-658 million and the USDA's May estimate of 540 million. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.01 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.26, down 7 3/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.99 1/2, down 5 cents.
