Chicago Grains Higher On The Day, Lower On The Week
13/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed higher on the day, but lower for the week. Informa revised their 2014 US crop production estimates, lowering their forecast for soybean plantings from 82.073 million acres to 81.778 million, although still higher than the USDA's 81.493 million. They see yields at 44.5 bu/acre versus 45.2 bu/acre from the USDA, and production at 3.591 billion bushels, which although still a record is a bit below the USDA's 3.635 billion estimate. Monday will bring the NOPA crush figures for May, with the average trade guess coming in at around 127 million bushels versus 132.7 million in April and 122.6 million in May 2013. Monday will also bring the latest USDA crop progress estimates, with the trade expecting the US 2014 soybean crop to be around 92-94% planted versus 87% a week ago. Soybeans rated good to excellent were 74% a week ago. There's not likely to be a great deal of change in that, with some suggesting ratings to be 1-2 points lower, and others saying unchanged to 2 points higher. The latest commitment of traders report shows managed money continuing to liquidate their net soybean long, selling just over 24k lots for the week through to Tuesday night. Their net long now stands at a little over 84k contracts. Conab cut their Brazilian soybean production estimate to 86.05 MMT versus the USDA's 87.5 MMT forecast. Weather forecasts for the Midwest remain largely non-threatening across the next two weeks. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.25 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.21 1/4, up 9 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $467.90, down $1.30; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 39.69, up 111 points. For the week Jul 14 beans shed 31 1/4 cents, with meal down $19.70 and oil gaining 68 points.
Corn: The corn market also closed higher on the day but lower for the week. Informa estimated 2014 US corn plantings at 91.581 million acres, unchanged from last month and a little lower than the USDA's current forecast of 91.691 million. They also left their 2014 US corn yield estimate unchanged at 163.5 bu/acre, pegging production at 13.766 billion bushels. Conab raised their forecast for Brazilian corn production from 75.19 MMT to 77.89 MMT, with second crop corn contributing 45.66 MMT of that total versus a previous estimate of 43.74 MMT. AgroConsult estimate Brazil's winter corn crop even higher at 46.6 MMT versus a previous forecast of 42.1 MMT, although still slightly below last year's 46.9 MMT. Monday's crop progress report is expected to reveal little change in US corn conditions which were 75% good/excellent last week, far higher than 63% a year previously. The latest commitment of traders report shows managed money cutting their net long in corn by around 27.7k lots for the week through to Tuesday night. Their overall net long in now 146.4k contracts - their smallest holding since February. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased their Argentine corn production estimate by 1.0 MMT to 25.0 MMT. Harvesting is still only making slow progress at 42% complete compared to 74% this time last year. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.47, up 3 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.43, up 3 cents. Jul 14 corn was still down 12 cents on the week.
Wheat: The wheat market closed a little higher on the day, but still with some fairly hefty losses for the week. Kansas wheat displayed the most strength as now unwelcome rains continue to disrupt the harvest there. "Kansas City’s strength may have been related to a weekly harvest report from US Wheat Associates. It pegs harvest at 30 to 40% complete in TX/OK, with yields averaging just 19 bu/acre. Average protein of 14.3% is higher than last year," said Benson Quinn Commodities. That yield figure is the equivalent of little more than half a tonne an acre. Informa estimated the US 2014 spring wheat area at 12.179 million acres, up from 12.059 million previously and versus 12.009 million from the USDA. One or two analysts are scaling back their ideas on Russian wheat production potential. Conab estimated the Brazilian 2014/15 wheat crop at 7.37 MMT versus 6.88 MMT previously and up 33% from 5.53 MMT a year ago. They see imports in 2014/15 falling to 5.5 MMT from an estimated 6.7 MMT this season. Last week the USDA had the US spring wheat crop at 71% good/excellent versus 62% this time a year ago. Those ratings may have risen 1-3 points in Monday's upcoming report. The latest commitment of traders report shows managed money flipping from a net long of around 1k lots in Chicago wheat to a net short of around 27k contracts as of Tuesday night. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.86, up 3/4 cent; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.13 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.83 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents. For the week CBOT wheat was down 32 1/4 cents, with KCBT down 22 1/4 cents and MGEX losing 25 3/4 cents.
