Chicago Grains Rally On Short-Covering, US Rains
19/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with old crop export sales defying expectations of negative to zero once again coming in at 97,900 MT - and this doesn't include yesterday's reported sale of 140,000 MT either, that will be reported next week. New crop sales came in at 285,800 MT and exports were 192,200 MT. In other news the Philippines bought 160,000 MT of US meal for Nov-Jan shipment. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have sold 38.43% of their 2013/14 soybean crop versus 46.17% a year ago. They forecast the Argentine bean crop at 54.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. They said that Argentina has now harvested 93% of their 2013/14 soybean crop. There's talk that up to 1.0 million acres of canola may not get planted in Manitoba due to rain. The US Midwest remains wet too, typical of a developing El Nino. "A rash of strong thunderstorms developed overnight in the Upper Midwest, worsening already-wet field conditions in corn and soybeans. Seven to 10 inches of rain has accrued in South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota from recurring thunderstorms over the past 10 days. Producers are ready for the rain to stop, as widespread flooding has developed," said Martell Crop Projections. Fund buying in beans was estimated at a net 3,000 lots on the day. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.20 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.27 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $451.20, down $2.00; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.61, up 48 points.
Corn: The corn market posted decent gains on short-covering prompted by excessive Midwest wetness. "The topsoil moisture map this morning reveals pockets of excessive wetness in northern Midwest farms. More rain is still predicted with an active storm track across the northern United States. A trough of low pressure over Montana and Wyoming keeps spinning out waves of showers into the Upper Midwest. Minnesota is the wettest of the major corn and soybean states accruing a 5-inch moisture surplus over the past several weeks. The forecast calls for another 1-2 inches of rain in the Central United States, at least. Heavier rain, 3-5 inches, is possible in a swath from eastern Nebraska to southern Michigan and including western Iowa and northern Illinois," said Martell Crop Projections. Weekly export sales of only 109,000 MT of old crop and 78,900 MT were disappointing compared to expectations of a combined 350-550 TMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have sold 41.61% of their 2013/14 corn crop versus 64.88% a year ago. They estimated this year's production at 32.1 MMT versus a previous estimate of 31.1 MMT. They said that Argentina has harvested 49% of their 2013/14 crop. Strategie Grains estimated the EU-28 2014/15 corn crop at 65.9 MMT, unchanged from last month and up 2% on a year ago. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for Ukraine corn production this year by 0.5 MMT to 26.8 MT. They also increased their outlook on Russia's corn crop by 0.1 MMT to 11.4 MMT. Fund buying in corn was estimated at a net 7,000 contracts on the day. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.50 1/2, up 9 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.44 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher for a third day on continued short-covering. Talk of poor yields and possible further crop damage due to heavy harvest rains on the US Plains is supportive, even if wheat crops elsewhere around the world are in much better shape. The Kansas Wheat Commission reported yields that range from only 12-35 bu/acre. Canada also remains wet, potentially harming wheat production there. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that Argentina farmers have sold only 56.65% of their 2013/14 wheat crop versus 90.95% a year ago. The Russian Ag Ministry forecast grain production there at 97 MMT, including 53 MMT of wheat. They see 2014/15 grain exports, most of which will be wheat, up 15% at 22 MMT. MDA CropCast increased their forecast for the Ukraine wheat crop by 0.3 MMT to 20.5 MMT and increased their outlook on Russia by 1.8 MMT to a still low looking 47 MMT. They pegged barley production in the former 0.3 MMT higher than last week at 7.2 MMT and increased output in the latter by 0.1 MMT to 14.8 MMT on improved weather. Weekly export sales of 372,600 MT were at the low end of trade expectations of 350-550 TMT. Pakistan bought 90,000 MT of Black Sea origin wheat for August shipment. Jordan are re-tendering for 100,000 MT optional origin milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. The UAE bought 120,000 MT of milling wheat from the Black Sea region for Sept–Dec shipment. Saudi Arabia seeks 715,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Sept-Nov shipment. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.93 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.29 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.03, up 5 3/4 cents.
