Nogger's Blog

09/06/14 -- Soycomplex: The market closed mixed, in the red nearby and with modest gains further forward. Once again this can be put down to the unwinding of spreads and funds rolling out of their front-end longs. There may also have been an element of profit-taking on old crop positions ahead of Wednesday's USDA WASDE report. Trade estimates for that have 2013/14 US soybean ending stocks at 127 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 119–139 million and 130 million last month. New crop carryout is seen at a more generous 319 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 245-364 million and 330 million last month. World ending stocks next season are seen being close to a record 82 MMT, up sharply from an anticipated 66.4 MMT in 2013/14. Today the USDA reported the sale of 117 TMT of new crop beans to China. Weekly US soybean export inspections were 123,115 MT. Customs data shows that China imported 5.97 MMT of beans in May versus 6.50 MMT in April. China has now imported 27.8 MMT of beans so far this calendar year, up 35.3% versus Jan/May 2013. CONAB come out tomorrow with their 2013/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Last month they had the 2013/14 bean crop estimated at 86.57 MMT and exports estimated at 45.3 MMT. After the close the USDA said that 87% of the 2014 US soybean crop was now planted, up from 78% a week ago and higher than the 5-year average pace of 81%, although maybe at the low end of trade expectations. The crop is 71% emerged versus 50% a week ago and 62% on average. The first crop condition ratings of the season had 74% of the crop rated good/excellent. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.59, up 2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.23 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $482.70, down $4.90; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 39.31, up 30 points.

Corn: The corn market closed sharply lower following China's announcement that it was to ban imports of US DDGS with immediate effect. That would seem to suggest that the ongoing dispute over MIR 162 corn with the US is as far away from being resolved as ever. Fund money was seen as being a net seller of around 10,000 corn contracts on the day, as they appear to be systematically reducing the size of their length. Trade estimates for Wednesday's WASDE report have 2013/14 US corn ending stocks at 1.170 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 1.121–1.279 billion and the USDA's May estimate of 1.146 billion. Carry-out next season is seen at 1.716 billion, from a range of estimates of 1.405–2.282 billion and the USDA's May estimate of 1.726 billion. Before that we have CONAB out with their Brazilian crop estimates tomorrow. Last month they had the 2013/14 total corn crop there estimated at 75.19 MMT. Weekly US corn export inspections today were 1,147,968 MT, compared to 980,053 MT a week ago. After the close the USDA said that 2014 US corn planting is now effectively over. They had emergence at 92% versus 80% a week ago, 83% this time last year and 90% for the 5-year average. Crop conditions came in at 75% good/excellent, a 1 point drop on last week, but far higher than 63% this time last year. Kansas at 8% poor/very poor is the state with the worst ratings. On the weather front: "The forecast calls for above-normal rainfall again this week in the Midwest and Mid South. Dry conditions would prevail in the Great Lakes area allowing wet fields to recover. Much cooler air is settling into the US heartland. Morning temperatures have dropped into the low 50s F. The forecast calls for sharp cooling this week that would retard development in corn and soybeans. Northern Midwest corn is most at risk for retarded growth and development. The southern half of the corn belt is further along developmentally, and would not suffer as much from strong cooling," said Martell Crop Projections. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.49 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.46 1/4, down 10 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges, not helped by weakness in corn. Weekly export inspections came in at a ho-hum 518,866 MT, down from 532,901 MT a week previously. Trade estimates for Wednesday's WASDE report have the US all winter wheat crop at an average estimate of 1.394 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 1.330–1.445 billion. The USDA's May estimate was 1.403 billion and the 2013 US winter wheat crop was 1.534 billion. The US all wheat crop has an average estimate of 1.964 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 1.903-2.041 billion. The USDA's May estimate was 1.963 billion and the 2013 US all wheat crop was 2.130 billion. US 2013/14 wheat ending stocks are seen at 590 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 565-625 million and the USDA's May estimate of 583 million. US 2014/15 wheat carry out is forecast at 552 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 475-658 million and the USDA's May estimate of 540 million. Ahead of CONAB's report tomorrow, they had Brazil's 2014 wheat crop estimated at 6.88 MMT last month. They won't begin harvesting that until October, prior to that they are seen as still being a featured buyer of US wheat. There's talk that Brazil could buy up to 1.5 MMT of US wheat before their own and Argentina’s wheat harvest begins later in the year. Reports suggest that China has harvested more than 60% of their winter wheat crop on 11.47 million hectares. After the close the USDA said that 86% of the US 2014 winter wheat crop is now headed, which is one point higher than the 5-year average and 5 points ahead of a year ago. They left the crop at only 30% good/excellent, one point down on this time last year. They said that harvesting was 9% complete on a national level, which is 3 points behind average. Spring wheat planting is 95% done versus 93% normally, emergence is 80% compared to 82% on average. They estimated the spring wheat crop at 71% good/excellent versus 62% this time a year ago. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.11 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.34 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.03 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents.