Nogger's Blog

04/06/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed little changed. The USDA reported that the US had imported a record 7.12 million bushels of soybeans in April, a record for the month, but a bit below expectations of 10-15 million. The season's (Sep/Apr) imports so far are now 30.5 million bushels. The USDA has full season imports at 90 million bushels. These numbers wouldn't normally attract much interest, but 2013/14 isn't a normal year with US export commitments consistently running above USDA forecasts for the season - most of which have already been shipped. It is said that there are currently a further more than 20 million bushels of Brazilian soybeans either en-route to the US, or preparing to load. That would leave the US with around 40 million bushels still to import between now and the end of August to balance the books. Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean crop 86.5 MMT, which is 1 MMT below the USDA. They see the domestic soybean crush at 37.6 MMT versus a previous estimate of 37 MMT (the USDA currently still say 37 MMT). Lanworth estimated the US 2014 soybean planted area at 81.9 million acres, with yields at 44 bu/acre and production at a record 3.56 billion bushels. The USDA said 81.5 million acres, 45.2 bu/acre and 3.635 billion bushels last month. They issue revised estimates next Wednesday. Before that we have Brazil's CONAB out with their latest supply and demand estimates on Tuesday. Before that we have the USDA's weekly export sales report due tomorrow. For beans that is expected to show old crop sales of -100 TMT to zero, and new crop sales of 500 TMT to up to 1 MMT. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.82 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.17 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $496.60, down $3.00; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 39.25, up 90 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with small losses. The Energy Dept reported the weekly ethanol grind at 938k barrels/day, up from 927k bpd a week previously. That was quite friendly, but "corn usage for ethanol of 98.5 million bushels continues to lag the roughly 103 million that needs to be averaged to meet the USDA’s expectations," said Benson Quinn Commodities. South Korea KOCOPIA bought 50,000 MT of corn, said to be from South Africa, for Sept shipment. Brazilian corn is said to be competitively priced nearby into European markets, whilst the Black Sea sellers are concentrating their efforts on new crop. Lanworth now has the 2014 US corn planted area estimated at 91.1 million acres, with yields at 164.4 bu/acre and production at 13.8 billion bushels. The USDA said 91.7 million acres, 165.3 bu/acre and 13.935 billion bushels last month. Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa picked up heavy rain and hail overnight, although damage to corn and soybeans is not expected to be severe, but there could be some replanting required, possibly lowering the corn acreage a little in favour of beans. "Despite excessive rainfall, most crops are expected to recover. Where hail occurred, irreversible damage to corn and soybeans was done requiring farmers to file insurance claims for reimbursement. It may not be too late to plant soybeans after flood waters drain and fields dry out. It is too late for corn re-planting," said Martell Crop Projections. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the 500-800 TMT region for both crop years. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.56 1/4, down 2 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $4.53 1/2, down 3/4 cent.

Wheat: The market managed to post modest gains, breaking a run of ten consecutive lower closes (said to be a 20 year old record). Heavy rain has finally arrived for the parched southern Plains, but it's likely to be too late to be of any benefit. If anything, it could cause more problems than it solves for the US wheat crop, although it could be of some benefit to corn following wheat. Despite the anticipated drop in this year's US crop, production elsewhere around the world is likely to be good, and the US still aim to export around half of their 2014/15 crop. The EU Commission raised their forecast for soft wheat production here to 137.5 MMT from 135.9 MMT previously and up 2.3% on 134.4 MMT last year. The Russian Deputy Ag Minister suggested that a grain crop of 97 MMT there this year was possible, up almost 5% on last year's 92.4 MMT. The Russian Ag Minister himself recently said that output this year could hit 100 MMT. These figures would probably put Russia's wheat crop at around 52-54 MT this year, similar to last year's output and keep them in the frame as aggressive marketeers again for another year. Ditto Ukraine where a 20-22 MMT wheat crop looks to be on the cards for 2014. China meanwhile said that it had already harvested around 25% of its 2014/15 winter wheat crop. Lanworth estimated the 2014/15 US wheat crop at 55.6 MMT versus the USDA's 53.4 MMT. Informa are due to release their revised US wheat production estimates tomorrow. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are around 350-600 TMT. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.13 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.13 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.88 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents.