EU Grains Drift Lower

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 18:55 | Categorized as

17/06/14 -- EU grains closed mostly a little lower in a subdued session.

The day ended with the Jul 14 London wheat contract down GBP0.50/tonne at GBP138.75/tonne and with new crop Nov 14 London wheat closing GBP0.35/tonne lower at GBP136.20/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat closed down EUR1.00/tonne at EUR186.75/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn slid EUR0.25/tonne to EUR176.50/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed was EUR3.50/tonne easier at EUR346.75/tonne.

Fresh news was again thinly spread around, but the market continues to drift lower as confidence grows with each passing day of a bumper EU grain crop this season.

Optimism is also high for another good year of Black Sea production. They are thus far relatively lightly sold, meaning that they may well be the usual thorn in the side of European producers as soon as the combines begin to roll.

Russian wheat growers have only around 2.5 MMT of new crop wheat forward sold, according to one prominent market commentator. That's only around half of the volume that they had committed this time a year ago, he suggested.

Meanwhile, old crop exports continue to flow out of the region.

Russia had exported 25 MMT of grains to Jun 11, a more than 60% increase on this time a year ago,  according to the Ag Ministry there. That includes 18.15 MMT of wheat, 2.54 MMT of barley and 3.97 MMT of corn.

Ukraine meanwhile has exported 31.8 MMT of grains, including more than 9 MMT of wheat and almost 20 MMT of corn.

APK Inform say that the 2014 Ukraine grain crop will total 59.6 MMT, a volume only beaten by last years record crop. Wheat yields will fall a modest 2.3% this year to 3.31 MT/ha, with barley yields down 4.4% and those for corn falling 4.7%, they predict.

The Australian weather bureau are toning down their forecasts for a 2014 El Niño weather event, saying that it could come later in the year than they had originally suggested. Other forecasters are now suggesting that this will now only be a 'weak event'.

Tunisia bought 159 TMT of optional origin (probably Black Sea) milling wheat for Jul/Sep shipment. Jordan bought 50 TMT of  optional origin feed barley for December delivery. Algeria are infor a nominal 50 TMT of durum wheat for October.