Chicago Markets Mostly Lower, But Downtrend Almost Done Says Analyst
22/07/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mostly lower save for front end Aug 14. Oil World estimated the global 2014/15 oilseed crop at 505 MMT versus 488.4 MMT in 2013/14. That increase is down to soybean production, which they see rising from 284.6 MMT to 305.6 MMT. World rapeseed and sunflower output is seen slightly lower in the season ahead. Global oilseed ending stocks will rise from 85.9 MMT to 102 MMT, again this is essentially all down to soybeans, where world carryout is forecast at a record 88.4 MMT, up sharply from 70.9 MMT in 2013/14. The USDA announced 180,000 MT of new crop US meal sold to Vietnam, along with 225,000 MT of new crop US meal sold to unknown. They also announced 20,000 MT of new crop US bean oil sold to unknown. Argentina’s Rosario port workers ended their strike and went back to work yesterday. It's an uneasy truce though. Another port workers union in Argentina has threatened to go on strike today and customs workers are talking about strike action later in the week. Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $11.84, up 8 1/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.57 3/4, down 13 3/4 cents; Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $381.80, up $1.10; Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at 35.93, down 21 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with losses of around 3-4 cents. The first day of a Doane’s crop tour reported largely excellent production potential in NW Illinois where a conservative yield estimate was said to be in the 190 bu/acre plus region, with higher probable. "Scouts in a couple of key corn producing regions report very little stress, high plant population with a chance to fill kernels to end of the cob and strong possibility of high ear weights," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Today is the second day, which will cover Western Illinois, Iowa, Southern Minnesota, Eastern Nebraska and Eastern Missouri. A Commerzbank analyst was quoted on Reuters as saying “We think the favourable US crop outlook should be priced in by now. Corn prices should not go down further, at least not on a lasting basis." He added "We think even the soybeans downtrend is more or less done." EU corn prices fell sharply on the day to set 4-year lows. The ongoing rain and warmth might not be helping the EU wheat crop much, but it will be doing no harm at all to corn, providing "hothouse" conditions. It may also mean that there's more feed wheat about, directly competing with corn. New crop Ukraine corn is said to be offered in the market at $188/tonne FOB the Black Sea for Oct/Nov shipment with bids around $182/tonne. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.60 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.68 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market ended around 4-6 cents lower across the three exchanges. Japan is looking for 94,586 MT of milling wheat for September shipment in a routine tender, with 37,689 MT of if to be US dark northern spring wheat. SovEcon said that Russia had harvested around 22 MMT of wheat so far (to Jul 18) with yields averaging 3.6 MT/ha versus 3.1 MT/ha this time a year ago. Improved weather conditions mean that Russia will harvest 56.5 MMT of wheat this year, said IKAR. The USDA currently only have the Russian wheat crop down at 53 MMT versus production of 52 MMT last year. Kazakhstan said that they'd finished 2013/14 exporting 8.7 MMT of grains out of their 18.9 MMT harvest. Production this year is expected to be around 1 MMT lower. They said that they had exported 219,400 MT of grain between July 1-20 versus 374,100 MT in the same period a year ago. Ukraine said that they'd exported 1.2 MMT of grains so far this month, including 232 TMT of wheat. The Ukraine early grain harvest is now at 19.1 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry there. Persistent and heavy rain in France is said to have caused "widespread crop damage" according to a report on Reuters. French hagbergs could only average 150-160 this year whereas last year 99% of the crop made 220 or higher, they said. There are now also said to be similar concerns emerging in parts of Germany. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.24 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.21 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.18 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents.
