EU Grains Narrowly MIxed With US Markets Closed

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 10:02 | Categorized as

04/07/14 -- EU grains markets ended a quiet day narrowly mixed. With US markets shut for their July 4 celebrations this was always likely to be a dull affair, and so it proved.

The day finished with Jul 14 London wheat up GBP0.20/tonne at GBP132.20/tonne, and with new crop Nov 14 London wheat also GBP0.20/tonne higher at GBP134.50/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR184.50/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR171.00/tonne, whilst Aug 14 Paris rapeseed rose EUR0.25/tonne to EUR337.75/tonne.

For the week that still puts Jul 14 London wheat GBP8.80/tonne lower, with Nov 14 down a more modest GBP3.10/tonne. Front month Paris wheat ended the week with losses of EUR3.25/tonne, with corn down EUR1.50/tonne and rapeseed losing EUR10.00/tonne.

Harvest pressure and sharply lower US markets following Monday's bearish USDA stocks and acreage reports piled more pressure onto EU grains this week. The pound closed the week at multi-year highs around 1.7150 versus the US dollar and over 1.26 against the euro.

Russia's harvest is gathering momentum, and yields are up on where they were 12 months ago. The Russian Ministry said today that 2.3 million ha have now been cut, which represents almost 5% of the intended area. That's already produced a crop of 8.3 MMT, with average yields coming in at 3.68 MT/ha, a more than 11% increase on 3.31 MT/ha this time a year ago.

Wheat accounts for 5.5 MMT of that total, with yields at 3.78 MT/ha, a more than 10% increase on 2013.

The Russian Ministry also reported that wheat exports in the Jan-May period totalled 5.3 MMT, a sharp increase on only 921,600 MT in the same period in 2013.

Traders report that around 80 TMT of new crop wheat has already been shipped out of the Azov Sea this week, where prices for 12.5% milling wheat are said to be around $222-225 FOB, which is the equivalent of around GBP130/tonne. The same quality Russian wheat FOB ports on the Black Sea is priced at around $252 FOB, which is around GBP147/tonne.

Ukraine wheat meanwhile is reported as having traded at less than that delivered into the Turkish port of Marmara yesterday, around GBP146.40/tonne including freight. Ukraine corn meanwhile is now under $200 FOB for new crop November shipment, that's less than GBP115/tonne.

The Ukraine Ministry said that they'd exported 160 TMT of grains in the first three days of the new 2014/15 season, including 79 TMT of barley and 75 TMT of wheat, with a further 150 TMT loaded on vessels waiting to sail.

FranceAgriMer said that the French winter barley harvest was already 44% complete as of Monday, up from 6% a week ago and compared to nothing at all in 2013 at this time. They've even made a start on the spring barley harvest. Meanwhile 99% of the French corn crop now has at least 6-8 leaves visible compared to only 78% this time last year.

They estimated that 69% of the French wheat crop is in good/very good condition, unchanged on a week ago and one point down on this time last year. French winter barley good/very good was pegged at 70% compared to 67% last week and 68% this time in 2013. Corn was rated 83% good/very good, 2 points down on last week but much higher than only 55% a year ago.