EU Wheat Posts Modest Gains In Light Consolidation

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:11 | Categorized as

30/07/14 -- EU grains managed a mostly higher close at the end of a mixed two-sided trading session. We can probably attribute this to light consolidation/profit taking following the recent slump to 4-year lows.

The day finished with Nov 14 London wheat up GBP0.65/tonne at GBP124.60tonne, Nov 14 Paris wheat ended EUR0.50/tonne firmer at EUR175.50/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn was up EUR1.00/tonne at EUR163.00/tonne, whilst Aug 14 Paris rapeseed fell EUR2.25/tonne to EUR317.25/tonne.

The German Farmers Association, DBV, said that the winter barley harvest there was almost complete, forecasting good yields of 7.3 MT/ha versus 6.9 MT/ha last year. They see production in 2014 at 9 MMT.

German winter OSR yields were estimated at 4.1 MT/ha, producing a crop of 5.8 MMT. The harvest is more than 66% complete, they said.

They also commented that early winter wheat yields vary "very strongly" and that the 2014 harvest is held up by repeated rains, without giving a production forecast.

Ukraine said that it's Jul 1-29 grain exports were 1.757 MMT, including 558 TMT of wheat, 896 TMT of barley and 286 TMT of corn. There's a further 332 TMT of grain loaded onto vessels waiting to sail, they added.

Belarus said that they are 42.9% through their 2014 grain harvest, which is expected/hoped to produce a record crop of 10 MMT.

Russia said that they'd harvested 45.4 MMT of grains off 28.4% of the planned area, including 37.2 MMT of wheat and 4.4 MMT of barley. Grain yields so far are said to be up 23% at 3.43 MT/ha.

The USDA attaché in Russia estimated the 2014/15 total grain crop at 94.0 MMT (excluding Crimea which could add a further 1.2 MMT to that total) versus a previous estimate of 92.0 MMT. That includes 52 MMT of wheat, 16 MMT of barley, 13 MMT of corn.

The attaché estimated Russia's 2014/15 grain exports at 26.0 MMT.

Meteorolgix Weather said Europe’s weather forecast calls for generally warmer and drier weather next week, which will be favourable for harvesting.

The US were said to have imposed extra sanctions on three Russian banks. These are the VTB Bank, the Bank of Moscow and the Russian Agricultural Bank. It's not clear at this stage how that will impact, if at all, on Russia's grain business in the year ahead.

Egypt's GASC were said to have bought 175 TMT of exclusively Russian milling wheat for September shipment in their tender today at a little over $260/tonne C&F.

Ukraine feed wheat is said to be offered in the market at $205/tonne FOB for Aug/Sep shipment, which is around GBP120.50/tonne.