US Grains Mostly Lower Ahead Of Long Weekend
02/07/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower in what looks like consolidation ahead of the long weekend. The market will also only operate a holiday-shortened session tomorrow, so expect volumes to be light. Fund money was estimated to have trimmed a further 2,000 contracts off their rapidly reducing long holding in beans. We won't now know exactly where they stand until Monday, as the usual Friday Commitment of Traders report is delayed until then. China sold only 106,000 MT of the 355,000 MT of soybean reserves offered up at auction yesterday. There are some reports suggesting that stocks at the ports are high, which may limit imports in the short-term. There's also market talk that the Chinese are looking to resell/wash out Brazilian bean purchases for August shipment. They may not find US buyers quite so keen to book that position as their own harvest will be underway in the south by then. Taiwan Sugar Corp are said to be seeking 15,000 MT of US beans for Aug shipment. Rabobank forecast CBOT soybean prices at $11.20 in the final quarter of 2014. Informa are due out tomorrow with their US and world production estimates. Last time they gave us a US soybean yield of 44.5 bu/acre, and a crop of 3.591 billion bushels. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 0-150,000 MT of old crop and 300,000-500,000 MT of new crop. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.92 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.41 1/2, down 6 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $452.30, down $3.80; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 38.47, down 40 points.
Corn: The corn market ended around 4 cents lower, with the new crop Dec 14 future setting a lifetime contract low and looks like it may be setting it's sights on testing the $4/bu mark. I would imagine that there would be good buying interest if it did fall below that level. South Korea Kocopia bought 55,000 MT of corn, thought likely to be of US or South American origin, for Nov shipment. China continue to attempt to auction off large volumes of state-owned corn stocks. A report on Reuters suggested that the Chinese government may decide to scrap its corn stockpiling scheme by as early as next year. Ukraine said that it had exported a record 20.1 MMT of corn in 2013/14. Russia said that it had also exported a record volume, in excess of 4 MMT. Informa are due out tomorrow with their latest US and world production numbers. Last month they estimated 2014 US corn yields at 163.5 bu/acre, producing a crop of 13.766 billion bushels. Rabobank forecast Chicago corn prices to fall to a very precise $4.07/bu in the final quarter of 2014. The Energy Dept reported US ethanol production at 953k barrels/day last week, up 15k bpd from the previous week. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 500-800,000 MT for both crop years combined. Fund selling in corn was estimated at a net 5-6,000 lots on the day. That would place them dumping around 30,000 contracts for the week so far. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.18 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $4.18, down 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed all over the place, from a few cents higher in Chicago to 17 cents lower in Kansas. The wheat harvest is now in full swing in Kansas, the leading wheat producing state in the US. Yields are highly variable, but generally disappointing. Nevertheless, it was the Kansas wheat market that fell the hardest today, in what looks like "buy the rumour, sell the fact" trade. Unwinding of long Kansas, short Chicago wheat may also have been a feature. There's talk that Brazil may have bought up to 1.0 MMT of wheat since the government cut non-Mercosur wheat import taxes to 0% - much of that is likely to be US sourced. Ukraine said that they'd exported 9.4 MMT of wheat in 2013/14. Russia's final exports are likely to be around 25.5 MMT. Early Russian wheat yields from the 2014 harvest are said to be averaging 3.88 MT/ha, a more than 10% increase on this time last year. This of course is winter wheat, spring wheat yields may not produce such impressive year-on-year results. After a spate of recent purchases, Egypt’s supplies minister said that the country has enough wheat supply to meet demand for the next 6 months, but then again they always say that. Jordan cancelled a tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. Rabobank forecast Chicago wheat prices at $5.50/bu in the final quarter of the year. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 300-450,000 MT. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.61 3/4, up 2 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.83, down 17 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.51 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents.
