Chicago Ends Higher On Beans And Wheat, Lower On Corn
31/07/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with mostly small gains. Weekly export sales of 187,400 MT of old crop and 1,268,700 MT of new crop trumped expectations for combined sales of 1.0-1.2 MMT. Meal sales of a combined 751,100 MT were also at the top end of trade estimates of 550-750 TMT. As per usual China was a featured buyer on beans and unknown destinations was the leading taker on the meal. The IGC raised their forecast for global soybean production in 2014/15 by 4 MMT from last month to a new record 304 MMT, which is a 7.8% increase on the previous year. The US 2014/15 soybean crop was raised from 98.9 MMT to a new record 103.4 MMT, in line with the latest changes from the USDA. China's imports in the year ahead were upped 1 MMT to a record 72 MMT. Global consumption was increased by 3 MMT, ending stocks were raised 2 MMT. In addition "with a record EU crop set to partly compensate for declines elsewhere, notably Canada, the 2014/15 global rapeseed/canola out-turn is still expected to be the second largest of all time," they added. Separately, China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated July bean imports at 5.87 MMT and Aug bean imports at 3.84 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that Argentine farmers have sold 49.23% of their 2013/14 soybean crop versus 57.2% this time last year. Argentina defaulted in its debt for the second time in 13 years today, which may further discourage farmer selling. Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.24 1/2, up 4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.82, up 3/4 cent; Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $391.30, up $3.70; Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at 36.11, up 6 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with losses of around 3-4 cents despite another good set of weekly export sales statistics. These came in at 173,800 MT of old crop and 1,093,200 MT of new crop. That was towards the top end of trade estimates for sales of a combined 800 TMT - 1.2 MMT. The IGC raised their estimate for the global corn crop in 2014/15 by 6 MMT to 969 MMT, which is just shy of last season's record 974 MMT. Consumption was only increased by 1 MMT, ending stocks rose 7 MMT to 187 MMT, a 10.7% hike versus carryout at the end of 2013/14. These higher corn stocks take global grains inventories in 2014/15 (including rice) to a 15-year high of 419 MMT, they said. The US corn crop in 2014/15 was estimated at 353 MMT, up 3 MMT on a month ago and 1 MMT above the USDA's latest estimate. Separately, MDA CropCast upped their forecast for this year's US corn crop by 4.5 MMT from a week ago to a record 361.9 MMT. In other news, China were said to have sold 95.7% of the corn on offer at today’s auction. CEC estimated South Africa’s 2014 corn crop at 14.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 13.9 MMT and up 18.6% on the 11.8 MMT produced last year. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that Argentine farmers have sold only 53.47% of their 2013/14 corn crop versus 71.07% a year ago. Remember though that the harvest is well behind last year's pace. The USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated the country's 2014/15 corn imports at 2.6 MMT versus 3.1 MMT in 2013/14. US weather forecasts remain non-threatening, with rain forecast for much of the corn belt starting Sunday and lasting through to the middle of next week. Ideas that there could be a much larger volume of feed wheat on the world market in 2014/15 could keep corn under pressure for a while yet. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.57, down 4 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.67, down 4 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, aided by weekly export sales of 801,000 MT which beat modest trade expectations for sales of 350-550 TMT. Nigeria (167,000 MT), Panama (128,500 MT), Brazil (116,100 MT), Mexico (88,800 MT), Japan (74,600 MT) and the Philippines (50,000 MT) were featured buyers. The IGC raised their forecast for global wheat production in 2014/15 by 3 MMT to 702 MMT. Consumption was up by 2 MMT to 699 MMT and carryover reduced by 1 MMT to 193 MMT, although that's still 3 MMT higher than in 2013/14. Australia's 2014/15 wheat crop was raised 1 MMT from last month to 26.5 MMT. Europe's wheat crop (excluding durum) was increased from 139.2 MMT to 140 MMT. Russia's wheat crop was increased significantly, from 51 MMT to 55 MMT, and Ukraine's was raised from 20 MMT to 21.5 MMT. There were decreases for Argentina (down 0.4 MMT), the US (down 0.5 MMT) and Canada and Kazakhstan (both down 1 MMT). In other news, Taiwan bought 84,800 MT of US wheat for Sept-Oct shipment. Tunisia are tendering for 184,000 MT of optional origin wheat and 125,000 MT of optional origin barley, both for Sept–Nov shipment. Bangladesh are looking for 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that Argentine farmers have only sold 64.03% of their 2013/14 wheat crop versus 96.20% a year ago. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 2.03 MMT of grain in July versus 853,800 MT in June. ProZerno estimated Russia’s 2014/15 grain crop at a large 102.6 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 98.9 MMT and compared to 92.4 MMT a year ago. That total includes 58.2 MMT of wheat, which is 0.7 MMT more than IKAR estimated at the beginning of the week, and far higher than the USDA's current forecast of "only" 53 MMT, even if they are referring to a bunker weight total. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.30 1/4, up 3 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.25 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.16, up 3 1/4 cents.
