Nogger's Blog

18/08/14 -- Weather: "A fundamental shift in weather in the weather is expected this week with increasing heat and humidity in the Midwest and Great Plains. Heavy soaking rain is anticipated in corn and soybeans, but further north than originally predicted, affecting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Increasing heat and humidity would come from the “Bermuda High” a large ridge of high pressure that normally resides over the western Atlantic Ocean. This week, high pressure would expand up into the United States, dominating the eastern third of the nation. Humid unstable air circulating clockwise around high pressure would fuel showers across the northern Midwest. Dryness would worsen over the south-central United States. The GFS model predicts little if any rainfall this week in Kansas, Missouri, most of Illinois and the lower Mississippi Valley where stable high pressure takes control. Midwest temperatures this week are predicted to rise above normal, ending a 6-8 week stretch of exceptional coolness. Highs in the low 90s F are predicted this week in Kansas, Missouri and Illinois, and mid-upper 80s F in the balance of the corn belt. July temperatures were the 3rd coolest on record in Midwest corn, according to the National Climatic Data Centre. This helped corn and soybeans to conserve ground moisture, though crop development was also delayed. Warming temperatures would spur corn development," say Martell Crop Projections.

Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with the largest gains at the front end. Today was the first day of the ProFarmer US Midwest crop tour. Reports back from that suggest lower pod counts that last year in some parts of Ohio and South Dakota. The tour concludes on Thursday, with the results expected to be released on Friday. Brazil Abiove estimated the country's 2014 bean exports at 45.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 44.0 MMT and compared to 2013 exports of 42.8 MMT. Oil World estimated this year's Canadian canola crop at 14.7 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 14.5 MMT but down 18% versus last year's record crop of 18.0 MMT. They estimated Canada’s 2014/15 canola exports at 7.8 MMT versus 9.3 MMT in 2013/14. Stats Canada release their estimates on Thursday. Weekly export inspections for beans today were 56,210 MT, which was in line with expectations. After the close the USDA reported that 71% of this year's US soybean crop was in good to excellent condition, up a point on a week ago. They said that 83% of the crop was setting pods versus 72% a week ago and 79% for the 5-year average. China are to to auction 338,700 MT of beans from reserves overnight. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.15 1/2, up 13 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.57 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $392.10, up $3.80; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.96, up 9 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents lower. Reports from day one of the ProFarmer crop tour suggest significantly better yield potential than a year ago. In Ohio, through 9 stops, the average corn yield was estimated at 178.5 bu/acre versus 159.5 bu/acre a year ago and 141.0 bu/acre for the 3-year average. The hot and humid weather forecast could speed up corn development if it verifies. The USDA cut their corn good to excellent ratings by one percentage point to 72% after the close. A year ago 61% of the crop was rated in the top two categories. You may recall that last week's report said that 11% of the crop had dented versus the 5-year average of 16%, the first hint that crop development this year may have been a little retarded by the persistent cool Midwest conditions. That number was up this week to 22%, although that's still 5 points behind the 5-year average. Weekly export inspections came in at 970,874 MT, which was at the top end of trade expectations. Reports of a much higher volume of feed wheat being expected from this year's crop in Europe, Ukraine and possibly Russia too leans bearish for corn demand. FranceAgriMer said on Friday that 85% of the French corn crop is in good to very good condition, up a point on a week ago and fully 31 points ahead of last year. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.60 3/4, down 5 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.71 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. News that Brazil was to re-instate the 10% tariff on wheat imports from outside the Mercosur trade bloc was bearish for US wheat. The duty was suspended in 2013, and the US quickly took advantage providing Brazil with almost half (3.47 MMT) of its wheat imports that year. They've also been a regular buyer of US wheat during 2014 so far. The reintroduction of this duty starts immediately. Brazil will begin its 2014 wheat harvest in the state of Parana within the next few weeks. A sharp rise in output is expected this year, as it also is in neighbouring Argentina - traditionally Brazil's main wheat supplier. Production in both countries has been poor for the last 2 years, providing US wheat with a window of opportunity that now looks like closing. FCStone upped their EU-28 wheat production estimate by 3.1 MMT to 149.9 MMT. Dry areas of Eastern Australia were said to have picked up the decent rains that were in the forecast over the weekend, boosting wheat production potential there. India tweaked higher their 2013/14 wheat production estimate to a record 95.91 MMT. Ukraine said that it's wheat and barley harvests were 98% complete at 24.1 MMT and 9.3 MMT respectively. Weekly export inspections were friendly at 596,675 MT. The USDA said that spring wheat crop conditions were down 2 points on last week to 68% good/excellent. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.17 3/4, down 2 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.08 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents.