Nogger's Blog

11/08/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, save for the thinly traded, highly technical and about to expire Aug 14 contract. Weekly export inspections came in at 98,910 MT. The USDA reported the sale of 168 TMT of new crop beans to China. After the close they cut their 2014 US soybean good/excellent crop ratings by a point to 70%. They said that 72% of the crop is setting pods, up from 57% last week and the 5-year average of 65%. They said that 92% of the crop is blooming versus 85% a week ago and 91% for the 5-year average. All eyes are now on the USDA's August WASDE report due tomorrow. The trade is expecting US 2014 soybean yields to come in at a record 45.6 bu/acre versus their July estimate of 45.2 bu/acre. Soybean production is seen at an all time high 3.823 billion bushels versus the 3.8 billion estimated last month. US old crop soybean ending stocks are seen being trimmed to 136 million bushels versus 140 million last month. US carryout in 2014/15 is expected to be little changed from the 415 million bushels forecast in July. World 2014/15 ending stocks are seen rising from the 85.3 MMT estimated in July to 85.9 MMT this time round. Separately, Celeres estimated that Brazil's 2014/15 soybean crop would rise 6% from this year's record 86.3 MMT to a new all-time high of 91.4 MMT. Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $13.14 3/4, up 30 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.73 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents; Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $400.40, up $2.90; Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at 34.88, down 56 points and a fresh 5-year low for a front month.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents higher on what seems to have been short-covering ahead of tomorrow's USDA report. That is expected to provide a hike in 2014 US corn yields to a record 170 bu/acre (although many trade estimates are now above this level, few think that the USDA will increase things by more than 5 bu/acre in one go). Last month's estimate was 165.3 bu/acre. Production this year is seen coming in at a record 14.253 billion bushels, up from the 13.86 billion forecast in July and 2.4% up on last year. Old crop US corn ending stocks are forecast to be 1.24 billion bushels, down slightly on 1.246 billion a month ago. New crop inventories are seen rising from the 1.8 billion bushels estimated in July to around 2 billion bushels this time round. World 2013/14 ending stocks are forecast at 172.85 MMT, down slightly on 173.42 MMT a month ago. World carryout in 2014/15 is seen rising from the 188.05 MMT predicted in July to 192.53 MMT. After the close the USDA said that 73% of the US 2014 corn crop is in good to excellent condition, unchanged on last week. They said that 54% of the crop was as the dough stage versus 36% last week and 46% for the 5-year average. They said that 96% of the crop had silked, up from 90% a week ago and one point ahead of the 5-year average, and that 11% of the crop had dented. The latter figure is below the 5-year average of 16% and the first hint that crop development this year may have been a little retarded by the persistent cool Midwest conditions. Weekly export inspections came in at 905,137 MT. Israeli buyers are tendering for 120 TMT of option origin corn for Oct/Dec shipment. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.56 3/4, up 5 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.68 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 2-5 cents lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections were respectable at 526,997 MT. Tomorrow's USDA report is likely to be more about corn and beans than it is for wheat, although we've said that before and been surprised. The 2014 US all wheat crop is expected to be marked slightly higher than last month's 1.99 billion bushels to around 2.01 billion. Spring wheat production is expected to contribute 579 million of that, up from 565 million a month ago. US 2014/15 wheat ending stocks are seen at 663 million bushels, up marginally from 660 million a month ago. World 2013/14 wheat ending stocks are estimated at 184.25 MMT versus 184.29 MMT a month ago. World 2014/15 carryout is seen at 190.41 MMT, up from the 189.54 MMT estimated in July. The US 2014 winter wheat harvest was estimated at 95% complete, up 5 points from a week ago and a similar figure up on the 5-year average. South Dakota is the only state where the harvest is behind normal at 75% complete versus 88% normally at this time. Spring wheat crop conditions were left unchanged at 70% good to excellent. The fledgling 2014 spring wheat harvest is 6% complete versus the 5-year average of 21% done. The Dakotas are laggards again, with SD 11% done versus 55% normally and ND yet to start compared with a 5-year average of 18% complete on average at this time. Israeli buyers are tendering for 25 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for Oct/Nov shipment. Russian or Ukraine origin material looks the most likely to win that. The Russian grain harvest is now said to stand at 58.8 MMT off 18.2 million hectares, or just over 39% of the planned area. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.46 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.23 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.16 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents.