Chicago Markets End Little Changed
27/08/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower save for the increasingly erratic front month Sep 14. Oil World's Thomas Mielke said that soymeal is overpriced and that prices could fall by 10% in the next 3-4 months. He forecast 2014/15 global soymeal production at 199.0 MMT, up 6.4% versus 187.0 MMT a year ago. The US Soybean Export Council estimated the 2014 US soybean crop at 3.8-4.0 billion bushels versus the current USDA estimate of 3.82 billion. Dr Cordonnier increased his estimate for US soybean yields this year to 45.5 bu/acre versus a previous estimate of 45.0 bu/acre. IMEA said that Mato Grosso farmers will begin planting their 2014/15 soybean crop as soon as the government exclusion period (aimed at combating the spread of Asian Rust) ends on Sept 15. They have currently only forward sold 8% of their new crop beans versus 32% a year ago, they added. The Argentina Ag Ministry said that growers there have sold 55.49% of their 2013/14 soybean crop versus 63.77% a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are between zero and negative 150 TMT on old crop as the 2013/14 draws to a close. New crop sales are forecast strong at 750 TMT to 1.1 MMT. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $10.85 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.23 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $416.80, up $28.10; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.67, down 36 points.
Corn: The corn market closed flat on a general lack of fresh news. "The corn market lacked fresh inputs of either persuasion. The negative factors will continue to limit upside, while supportive factors basically impossible to find. Talk of large yields in the southern plains and southeast continue to be mentioned," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Traders note that we often don't see the bottom of the corn market until October. Taiwan's MFIG are tendering for 60,000 MT of Brazilian or South African corn for Oct-Nov shipment. Ag Resource estimated 2014/15 US corn ending stocks at 2.1 billion bushels, rising to 3 billion by the end of 2015/16. That's up sharply from 1.2 billion bushels at the end of the current season. They see the average 2014/15 US corn price at $3.40/bushel. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yields at a record 170 bu/acre, up from a previous forecast of 169 bu/acre. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there had sold 63.72% of their 2013/14 corn crop versus 73.84% a year ago. South Africa's CEC estimated corn production there at 14.307 MMT, the highest in 30 years. Data from the US Energy Dept showed weekly ethanol production fell to 913k barrels/day last week. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are around a combined 450-750 TMT, with old crop sales 100 TMT either side of zero. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.56 and Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.65. Both completely unchanged.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. There was little change to the situation in Russia/Ukraine. Exports out of the region appear to be continuing unhindered. The head of the Russian Grain Union forecast grain production there at 104 MMT, but said that output could rise above the 2008/09 post-Soviet era record of 108 MMT given favourable weather between now and the end of the harvest. That currently stands at 72.9 MMT off 54% of the planned area. Wheat production could come in at 60 MMT, he opined. It's at 46.9 MMT so far off 55.3% of plan. He said that 2014/15 grain exports would be a record 30 MMT. They exported a record for the month in July and are expected to have shipped out a record for any month in August. The USDA's FAS forecast the EU-28 grain crop at 306.1 MMT, a 2.5 MMT increase on their previous estimate and the second highest in history, beaten only by output of 312 MMT in 2008/09. The USDA's FAS in Canada estimated wheat production there this year at just under 28 MMT versus the record crop of 37.5 MMT last year. Exports will only decline relatively modestly though, down 6% to 21.5 MMT in 2014/15, they added. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there had only sold 67.53% of their 2013/14 wheat crop versus 99.12% a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are a modest 300-500 TMT. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.47 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.28, up 7 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.10 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
