Chicago Markets End Lower Across The Board
25/08/14 -- Soycomplex: Was this the day that the front end premium on beans and meal finally started to capitulate? It could be, after both closed a choppy session sharply lower after posting further strong gains earlier in the day. Reports of some early soybeans getting harvested in the Delta to take advantage of the huge nearby premiums, and some processors pulling cash bids, appear to have sent some remaining spec longs scrambling for the exit. Nov 14 beans meanwhile set a new contract low. Global soybean supplies will soon be on the rise, outstripping forecast increases in consumption, taking ending stocks to record levels in the year ahead. Oil World estimated the 2014/15 global soybean crop at 306.7 MMT versus a previous estimate of 305.6 MMT and up 7.8% from 284.6 MMT in 2013/14. World soybean consumption in 2014/15 will be 290.2 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 288.1 MMT and up 3.9% from 274.4 MMT a year previously, they added. They see global soybean ending stocks rising 23.6% to a record 86.4 MMT next season. Argentina said that their July soybean crush was 3.908 MMT, up 7.3% from a year ago. That takes the Jan-Jul crush to 22.237 MMT, up 12.7% from year ago. After the close the USDA trimmed soybean crop condition ratings by one percentage point to 70% good to excellent versus 58% a year ago. They said that 90% of the crop was setting pods, one point ahead of the 5-year average. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.25 3/4, down 40 1/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.29 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $406.10, down $27.20; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.74, up 38 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents lower. ProFarmer didn't estimate US 2014 corn yields as high as they might have done on Friday, even if 169.3 bu/acre was almost 2 bu/acre above the USDA and easily a record number. Many still think that we will end up above 170 bu/acre. ProFarmer have underestimated both corn and soybean yields for the past two years in their August crop tour. US weather seems to be doing it's best to make this come true again this year. "Resistance stemmed from a general negative view towards the corn market and beneficial rains falling in areas of NW IA and NW ILL that have tended to be dry over the course of the last month. Additionally, many other key corn and soybean growing regions saw additional rainfall to complement the rains of last week. All in all, the environment looks good for late season development," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The USDA announced 113,673 MT of US corn sold to Costa Rica, along with 120,000 MT to Colombia for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system. After the close the USDA raised good to excellent crop condition by one percentage point to 73% good to excellent versus only 59% this time last year. Illinois is at 82% good to excellent, with Iowa and Ohio at 75% and Indiana 73%. They said that 83% of the crop is at the dough stage versus 78% for the 5-year average, although denting still lags a little at 35% versus 43% for the 5-year norm. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.60, down 5 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, down 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. If Ukraine/Russian tensions maybe didn't improve over the weekend, they didn't seem to get any worse either. Weakness in corn won't have helped wheat's cause today. Malaysia were reported to have bought 5,000 MT of Black Sea origin feed wheat for Sept shipment. Asian buyers are seen increasingly looking to the Black Sea for potentially cheap supplies of feed wheat over the next few months. Concerns that too much rain in spring wheat areas may be harming quality remain. The USDA said that the 2014 US spring wheat harvest was only 27% complete versus 49% normally at this time. Whilst Washington is 91% done compared to only 52% normally, The Dakotas and Minnesota are well behind. ND is only 10% complete versus 43% normally at this time, SD is at 57% compared to 87% on average and MN is 22% done versus 66% normally. Spring wheat crop conditions were cut 2 percentage points to 66% good to excellent, which is now a point behind this time last year. Russia said that it had now harvested 71.5 MMT of grains off 52.3% of the planned area, that includes 46.2 MMT of wheat off 53.8% of plan. Egypt's GASC are tendering for wheat for last-half September shipment overnight. US wheat is unlikely to feature, with Black Sea sellers once again the most likely winners on both price and freight. Traders said that US SRW wheat is probably around $10/tonne too expensive to be competitive. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.22 3/4, down 10 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.17, down 9 3/4 cents.
