Chicago Markets Mostly Lower As Large US Soy And Corn Crops Loom
20/08/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, with funds selling an estimated net 5,000 contracts on the day on the outlook for a bin busting US crop this year. Today is the third day of the ProFarmer US Midwest crop tour, where they will be in Illinois and Western Iowa, with some decent pod counts expected. On day two they were in Indiana where the average bean count was estimated at 1,220.79 pods per square yard versus 1,185.14 a year ago and the 3 year average of 1,118.65 pods. They were also in Nebraska where the average bean count was estimated at 1,103.26 pods versus 1,138.94 a year ago and the 3 year average of 1,106.62 pods. Hear that Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US bean yields at 45.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. The USDA announced today 110,000 MT of US beans sold to Vietnam for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system. Soybean prices remain relatively buoyant compared to those of corn and wheat, which is expected to encourage record plantings in South America again later this year. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around 50-60 TMT of old crop and 750-950 TMT of new crop. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.19 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.38, down 14 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $402.60, up $2.80; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.86, up 20 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3-5 cents lower as the trade anticipates a huge US corn crop to be on the way again this year. Day two of the ProFarmer crop tour reported Indiana corn yields estimated at a record 185.03 bu/acre versus 167.36 bu/acre a year ago and far higher than the 3 year average of 141.24 bu/acre. In Nebraska corn yields were estimated at 163.77 bu/acre versus 154.93 bu/acre a year ago and the 3 year average of only 146.81 bu/acre. Allendale said the tour will likely find even bigger crop yields when it moves into the top producing states of Iowa and Illinois today. Hear that Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 national US corn yields at a record 169.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. The early 2014 Russian corn harvest is now underway in the south of the country. Ukraine are a little further away from the beginning of their harvest. Both are expected to be eager sellers as soon as they get their new crop in. Ukraine new crop corn is reportedly offered around $182/tonne FOB the Black Sea. On the US weather front "The forecast continues very wet, though rainfall to date has been disappointing. A swath of very heavy rainfall, 3-4 inches, is predicted in eastern Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin this week," said Martell Crop Projections. Trade expectations for tomorrow's weekly export sales for corn are around 750 TMT to 1.1 MMT. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.59 1/2, down 3 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed around 6 cents lower across all three exchanges. Taiwan is tendering for 99,410 MT of US milling wheat for Oct-Nov shipment. Japan are tendering for 146,858 MT of milling wheat for Sept-Nov shipment in their regular combo of US, Canadian and Australian origin. The Russian grain harvest tonight stands at 67.2 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry, with average yields of 3.04 MT/ha representing a 19.2% rise on this time last year. Wheat accounts for 44.9 MMT of that total, with barley adding a further 14.3 MMT. Kazakhstan said that it could export as much as 8 MMT of grain this season, despite a fall in production, due to it having fairly large carryover stocks from last year's harvest. Exports in 2013/14 were 8.7 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry. Stats Canada are out tomorrow with their latest crop production estimates. The average trade guess for the Canadian all wheat crop is around 28.5 MMT, although the range of estimates is quite wide at 26.2-34.5 MMT. Production last year was a record 37.5 MMT. There's much talk about the quality of this year's Ukraine wheat crop, and their relative recent absence from the milling wheat export market. Now we hear that Ukraine flour millers have asked for a temporary halt on milling wheat exports until a proper assessment of the quality of this year's crop can be done. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 500-600 TMT. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.39 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.18 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.10 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
