Chicago Markets Mostly Lower, Excellent Early Soy/Corn Yields Being Reported
26/08/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a little lower, save for front month Sep 14 which continued its spectacular fall from grace. That contract has now fallen around 90 cents in the last two sessions, whist Sep 14 meal is down by almost $45 in the same couple of days. The decline follows news that some new crop beans have been harvested in the south, with excellent very early yields being reported out of one particular county in Mississippi - 85-100 bu/acre. That reinforces the view that this season's upcoming harvest has excellent potential to be huge. Yesterday's USDA crop ratings, whist showing a small decline for beans in the good to excellent category, were still the best for 22 years at this time of year. As the 2014 US soybean harvest gets going, some thoughts are already turning to 2015. The current soy:corn price ratio still favours bean plantings. A Farm Futures survey into preliminary planting ideas for next year said that US farmers would increase their soybean plantings by 2.6% to a new record 86.6 million acres next year. That would come on the back of what looks pretty certain to be a record US crop this year, and record plantings in Brazil (and I expect from Argentina too) later this year. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $10.75 1/2, down 50 1/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.28, down 1 1/4 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $388.70, down $17.40; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.03, up 29 points.
Corn: The corn market closed down, although off the lows. As with soybeans, the conviction that US yields will be record and production will be huge this year, grows with every passing day at the moment. Last night's one point rise in crop conditions from the USDA to 73% good to excellent was said to be the highest rating since 1994. Also as with soybeans, early limited corn harvesting in the south is doing nothing but add to the conviction that this year's US crop is going to be a monster. "Despite the recovery late in the session, the list of items offering resistance is growing with reports the corn harvest in the southern plains and southeast is yielding much better than expected," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The EU-28 corn crop is also looking magnificent, helped by recent plentiful rains. A much larger feed wheat crop in Europe, and also Ukraine, this year also leans bearish for corn. Certainly some of this feed wheat will be/is already finding its way into potentially traditional US corn homes in Asia. The same Farm Futures survey referred to above said that US growers might still plant more than 90 million acres of corn in 2015, despite current low prices. The survey placed the actual number at 90.5 million acres, down a relatively modest 1.2% from the 91.6 million currently said to have been planted this year. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.56, down 4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.65, down 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, although generally with small losses. Egypt's GASC bought Russian and Romanian wheat, with US material not even offered. They dropped their min hagberg requirement to 200, which encourage four (still unsuccessful) French offers. Persistent rains on the Northern Plains, and into Canada too, are said to be causing potential quality losses to spring wheat in the region. Farm Futures Magazine found that some growers on the Northern Plains might be wooed into giving soybeans a try next year, with 2015 US spring wheat planting intentions seen falling 8.6% to 11.6 million acres. The situation is completely different in Central and Southern Plains winter wheat areas though, due to current good soil moisture profiles. Winter wheat seedings, which are set to begin soon, could be up 3.1% on last year to 43.6 million the survey found. Russia's grain harvest is getting larger every day. The Ag Ministry there now say that the country had harvested 72.3 MMT of grains off 53.3% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 46.7 MMT of that total off 54.9% of plan, with yields up 17.5% at 3.36 MT/ha. The Russian Ag Ministry today raided their forecast for Russian grain exports in 2014/15 to a potentially record 27.5-30.0 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 25-27 MMT. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.41 1/2, down 1 cent; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.21, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.12 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
