Chicago Wheat Extends Losing Run To Five Straight Sessions
13/08/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, as the trade digested yesterday's USDA numbers, amidst talk that their US yield estimate was too low and will likely increase in future reports. Next week's ProFarmer crop tour which kicks off on Aug 18 may shed some more light on the yield issue. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013/14 soybean imports at 70 MMT versus the USDA's 69 MMT. They see 2014/15 soybean imports at 73.0 MMT, the same as the USDA said yesterday. They forecast China's August soybean imports at 6.2 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there had sold 52.14% of their 2013/14 bean crop versus 61.02% a year ago. The NOPA July crush report comes out on Friday. Estimates for that are around 115-116 million bushels. Before that we have the weekly export sales numbers from the USDA tomorrow. Bean sales are expected to come in at around 850 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.64 1/2, down 25 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.46 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $368.70, up $3.50; Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.95, down 67 points and another fresh 5-year closing low for a front month.
Corn: The corn market closed narrowly mixed. The trade also expects that the USDA is too low with their US corn yield estimate this year, and that subsequent reports will come in higher, even though yesterday's 167.4 bu/acre would be a record. Demand remains pretty good at these levels though. The USDA announced 107,600 MT of US corn sold to Mexico for 2014/15 shipment,along with a further 130,000 MT to unknown. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to be in the region of 750 TMT to 1 MMT. Sales for 2014/15 are already close to 7.75 MMT. South Korea's FLC bought 60,000 MT of optional origin feed corn for Jan shipment. South Korea's Kocopia are tendering for 55,000 MT of optional origin corn for Dec shipment. US corn is currently said to be the most competitively priced origin into North Africa, cheaper even than Black Sea of Argentine corn. The Ukraine Ag Minister said that this year's grain crop could beat last season's record 63 MMT production (in bunker weight). That's probably a bit ambitious. UkrAgroConsult estimated this year's crop at 58.5 MMT in clean weight. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there had sold 61.87% of their 2013/14 corn crop versus 73.74% a year ago. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.58, down 1/2 cent; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.69 3/4, up 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower once more. It's now been down for 5 sessions in a row. Yesterday's surprise 11 MMT hike in the size of the world crop to a record 716 MMT weighs on the market, especially when now coupled with a record global and US corn crop too. Russia and Ukraine accounted for 7 MMT of that increase, and large crops in that region is rarely bullish news for wheat prices. Russia's 2014/15 wheat exports look like outstripping those of last season by 4 MMT, according to the USDA, and last year's tonnage was enough to depress the market. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that heavy rain was forecast for the end of the week in QLD and NSW, which will be of significant benefit to wheat crops there. Australian Crop Forecaster Profarmer estimated this year's wheat crop at 24.86 MMT, up 1% from their previous estimate. The Rosario Grain Exchange increased their forecast for Argentine wheat plantings this year to 4.36 million hectares, a more than 16% rise on last year's 3.75 million. They said that 93% of this area is already sown. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there had only sold 65.62% of their 2013/14 wheat crop compared to 97.66% a year ago. US export sales tomorrow are expected to be around 450-650 TMT. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.28, down 10 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.04, down 9 1/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.04 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents.
