Chicago Wheat Rises, By Mistake!
19/08/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mostly lower save for the front end, as too did meal. The one point improvement in last night's crop ratings was seen as a bit bearish for new crop. Oil World said that they expect "very large" Brazilian soybean crushings and exports to cut the country's Sep 1 soybean stocks to only 17.7 MMT. That's not much considering that they harvested a record 87.5 MMT crop this year, according to the USDA. It also doesn't leave much to go round for the remaining 4 months of the calendar year. Brazil of course won't start harvesting new crop beans until January, and traditionally doesn't get going again on the export front until Feb/Mar time. That potentially means big demand for US beans in the Sep/Dec period, especially if Argentine export volumes and farmer selling remains subdued. ProFarmer are mid-way through their 4-day crop tour, although they don't issue soybean yield estimates,they do pod counts instead. Yesterday's findings revealed an Ohio average bean pod count of 1,342.42 pods per square yard plot versus 1,283.61 pods a year ago and the 3 year average of 1,190.18 pods. In South Dakota the average bean pod count was 1,057.80 pods versus 1,016.68 pods a year ago and the 3 year average of 902.76 pods. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.20 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.52 3/4, down 5 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $399.80, up $7.70; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.66, down 30 points.
Corn: The corn market closed slightly higher. Yesterday's one point drop in crop condition ratings from the USDA was a little supportive, although 72% good/excellent is still a high number. There was a bit of support from a firmer wheat market. The vibe coming back from the ProFarmer crop tour is mixed. Yesterday's results threw up a potential Ohio corn yield estimate of 182.11 bu/acre versus 171.64 bu/acre a year ago and far higher than the 3 year average of 146.13 bu/acre. In South Dakota the 2014 corn yield was estimated at 152.71 bu/acre versus 161.75 bu/acre a year ago and the 3 year average of 125.70 bu/acre. Today the tour moved on to Nebraska, where they estimated the average corn yield at 163.77 bu/acre versus the 154.93 bu/acre estimated by the tour last year and the group's three-year average of 146.81 bu/acre. Things look even better in Indiana where they forecast a 2014 corn yield of 185.03 bu/acre, up from last year’s 167.36 bu/acre and much better than the three-year tour average of 141.24 bu/acre. That figure, if achieved, would be a record for the state. US weather forecasts remain mostly favourable, with rain moving through Illinois into Indiana today. The market still believes that average 2014 US yields will end up around the 170 bu/acre mark. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.62 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.72 1/4, up 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer, although well off the day's highs. A news report that suggested that the Ukraine PM had said that the country could lose 15% of it's grain crop this year due to the ongoing fighting in the east was probably to blame. That would indeed be a bullish factor, should it be true. Consider though that the Ukraine Ministry have already said this week that the early grain harvest is already 98% complete on a national level. A spokesman for the PM later said that this referred to 15% of the crop in the regions where the fighting is taking place, Donetsk and Luhansk, where last year's grain harvest was 2.2 MMT and 1.3 MMT respectively. That equates to around a combined (or in this case not combined, if you get the pun) 525 TMT of grain lost. That's hardly a market-moving volume in the overall scheme of things, and the vast majority of that tonnage is likely to be corn. Exports from the country appear to be continuing as normal. The Ukraine Ministry said that the country had exported 3.578 MMT of grains so far this season, including 1.739 MMT of wheat, 1.428 MMT of barley and 368 TMT of corn. Germany's DBV raised their forecast for the country's 2014 grain harvest to 50 MMT, including 26.2 MMT of wheat. The latter is up from a previous forecast of 24.6 MMT and compares to 25 MMT a year ago. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.46, up 3 1/2 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.24 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.16 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents.
