Nogger's Blog

25/08/14 -- Re the ProFarmer yield estimates released on Friday, in which they pegged US corn and soybean yields and production in 2014 at record levels, albeit maybe not quite so high as some were expecting.

For what its worth, I did a little bit of research into recent tour estimates, and it's maybe worth noting that they've been on the low side for both corn and beans the previous couple of years, we have to go back to 2011 to find estimates that were pretty close to the final USDA figures.

In 2013 they pegged US corn yields at 154.1 bu/acre, with production at 13.46 billion bushels. The final USDA numbers were 158.8 and 13.925 respectively - meaning ProFarmer were 3% under on yields and 3.5% under on production in August that year.

For beans in 2013 they said 41.8 and 3.158 versus a final USDA estimate of 43.3 and 3.289 billion - 3.6% under on yields and 4.1% under on production.

It was a similar story in 2012: Corn 120.25/10.478 versus final figures from the USDA of 123.4/10.780 - 2.6% and 2.9% under respectively; for beans 34.8/2.692 versus 39.8/3.034 - 14.4% and 12.7% underestimated.

Of course it's much harder to predict final yields now than it is "after the event" but the point is that on the evidence of the last two years there's the potential for final yields and production to ultimately come in significantly better still than even the record levels indicated by ProFarmer on Friday night.

Just sayin' !!