Chicago Grains Decline, Wheat At New 4-Year Low
18/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite strong weekly export sales and the USDA announcing 110,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment. Weekly sales came in at close to 1.5 MMT, headed by China (546,300 MT) and unknown destinations (469,100 MT) once again. Talk that this year's US soybean crop could still be larger than current record estimates suggest is what is piling the pressure on. "Yield reports out of the south continues to stun at 60 to 90 bu/acre," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The USDA currently estimate national yields averaging 46.6 bu/acre. MDA CropCast raised their US crop forecast by 44 million bushels from last week to 3,819 billion. That's an increase of 1.2 MMT to 103.95 MMT, a 20% hike on a year ago, and they are not the largest number in the hat. They also raised production in Brazil by 1.36 MMT to a record 93.95 MMT (up 7.3% on a year ago), with Argentina increased by 1.48 MMT to an also record 55.55 MMT, up 2.1% versus 2013/14. With three huge crops on the way, any talk of Chinese demand slowing is unsettling. Argentina's Ag Ministry said as of Sep 10 Argentine farmers had sold 58.35% of their bean crop versus 68.35% a year ago. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.71 1/2, down 11 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.79 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $328.80, down $7.60; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.72, down 67 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents lower. Weekly export sales of 659,700 MT were in line with trade expectations. Weakness in wheat dragged corn lower with it. As with beans, early US yield reports continue to impress, giving credence to the notion that production could ultimately end up even higher than the USDA's current all time high 14.395 billion bushels estimate. US weather forecasts continue to adopt a non-threatening look. Strategie Grains forecast the EU-28 corn crop at a record 71.3 MMT, up 3.3 MMT from just a month ago and significantly higher than the USDA's 68.4 MMT estimate from only a week ago. MDA CropCast trimmed their forecast for Ukraine's 2014 corn crop by 0.5 MMT to 26.2 MMT, a 13% fall versus last season's record, although still the second largest ever. They also increased their outlook for Brazil by 0.5 MMT to 74.1 MMT. Russia said that its corn harvest was 20% complete at 2.8 MMT. Argentina's Ag Ministry said that as of Sep 10 Argentine farmers had sold 70.40% of their corn crop versus 76.07% a year ago. Customs workers in Argentina are staging a 4-day strike starting today. China sold 625,844 MT of the 5 MMT of corn offered up for sale at this week’s auction. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.38 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.50 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed at new 4-year lows. Weekly export sales of 314,500 MT were below even the fairly modest trade expectation of 350-550,000 MT. Strategie Grains forecast the EU all wheat crop at a record 153.8 MMT, and increased the volume of the crop suitable for milling by 2 MMT from last month. Their new estimate is well above the USDA's 151 MMT estimate from a week ago. The French analysts also increased their EU wheat export estimate by 600 TMT from a month ago to 24.3 MMT in the light of recent international sales. They also increased their EU-28 barley production estimate by 1.9 MMT from last month to 59.6 MMT, which is now almost identical to last year's 59.7 MMT crop. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for the 2014 Ukraine wheat crop by 3 MMT from last week to 23.6 MMT, and also added 0.9 MMT to the country's barley production estimate to 8.7 MMT. The former represents an 8.8% increase versus a year ago, and the latter a 16% rise. Argentina's Ag Ministry said that as of Sep 10 Argentine farmers had sold 70.09% of wheat crop versus 97.49% a year ago. Russia said that its wheat harvest was almost 73% complete at 53.2 MMT in bunker weight. Their barley harvest is 85% done at 19.5 MMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.69 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.50 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents.
