Chicago Grains End With Little Change In Lifeless Trade
17/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains in a low volume and narrow trading range session. The USDA announced 620,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2014/15 delivery. This was almost certainly part of the 4.8 MMT "showcase" deal announced yesterday following a Chinese delegation visit to the US, so we can expect more big sales announcements in the coming days. China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated the country's September soybean imports at 4.98 MMT. Benson Quinn said that "stellar" yields continue to be being reported from early US harvest activity. Lanworth increased their forecast for US soybean yields this year from 46.7 bu/acre to a new record 47.0 bu/acre. They also increased production from 3.852 billion bushels to 3.873 billion. The USDA are currently at 46.6 bu/acre and with production at 3.913 billion bushels (Lanworth are using a smaller harvested area estimate). Dr Cordonnier said that Brazilian farmers are slow to sell their crops due to the weakening Real. One Real was worth $1.55 back in 2011, today the exchange rate is around $2.33, and expected to climb to £2.50 next year, he said. Bloomberg reported that this year's US corn and soybean harvest of around a record 18.3 billion bushels combined will meet with some forced spot selling as the entire US on farm storage capacity is only an estimated 13 billion bushels. Trade expectations for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are anywhere from 850 TMT to 1.6 MMT. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.82 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.90 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $336.40, down $1.90; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.39, up 58 points.
Corn: The corn market closed a cent or two lower on early harvest pressure. US weather forecasts offer no threat. "Well above average temperatures expected in the northern plains will help the development of the crop in our trade territory through the next 10 days. Temps through rest of the corn belt are expected to be normal to slightly below, which should allow for good progress on the row crop harvest," said Benson Quinn. Lanworth increased their US 2014 corn yield estimate from 173.7 bu/acre to 174.5 bu/acre. They however cut their production estimate from 14.649 to 14.569 billion bushels on the back of a decrease in harvested area, although still comfortably a record volume. The USDA are currently at 171.7 bu/acre and 14.395 billion bushels. Iran bought 300,000 MT of what was probably Black Sea origin corn for Sep-Oct shipment. South Korea's NOFI are tendering for up to 210,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan-Feb shipment. The US Energy Dept said that weekly US ethanol production rose to 931,000 barrels/day last week. Russia said that it's 2014 corn harvest was 18.5% done at 2.5 MMT. Ukraine's is only 8% complete so far at 1.5 MMT. Reuters reported that there had been no progress made with Chinese officials with regards to resolving the MIR 162 dispute that is now threatening to bring US DDGS exports to the region to a grinding halt as well as those of corn. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 500-700 TMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.41 3/4, down 2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.54, down 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, but without much change. Lanworth estimated US all-wheat production at 2.034 billion bushels, slightly higher that the USDA's current estimate of 2.030 billion. "Though the US is out of the game on GASC business, it is interesting to watch how the other global origination points react to these tenders. The French bombed yesterday’s tender and the Russians took notice as evidenced by cheaper offers on paper. This could result in the next leg down in global values," said Benson Quinn Commodities. "Despite a wet summer, drought has not been eradicated in the 3 main hard red winter wheat states Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The US drought monitor still shows pockets of 'exceptional' drought. Kansas producers report subsoil moisture at 16% very short, 31% short, 52% adequate and 1% surplus, the leading US wheat state," noted Martell Crop Projections. Turkey bought 200,000 MT of milling wheat in a tender, probably Russian origin. Iran bought 150,000 MT of feed barley for Sep-Oct shipment, probably Black Sea material. Tunisia are tendering for 92,000 MT of optional origin wheat and 75,000 MT of optional origin barley for Nov-Dec shipment. Algeria bought 50,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat for Jan shipment. Talk suggests that Australia's 2014/15 wheat exports may fall to 18 MMT, a five year low and 1 MMT below the current USDA estimate, as global competition hots up. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 350-550 TMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.99 1/4, up 3 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.82 1/4, down 1 cent; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.63, down 2 1/2 cents.
