Chicago Grains Rise Ahead Of USDA Stocks Data
29/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on month/quarter-end short covering. There may also have been some book squaring going on ahead of tomorrow's quarterly stocks report. That's expected to show Sep 1 US soybean inventories at around 126-131 million bushels. Weekly export inspections came in at a robust 687,191 MT. At an edible oils conference in India over the weekend Dorab Mistry apparently said that world soybean prices could hit new lows in January due to the large South American crop. Chicago soybean prices frequently post seasonal lows around the beginning of the year. "The fundamentals of the soybean complex say that prices should continue lower especially if record South American harvest is realized," said Benson Quinn Commodities. IMEA said on Friday that Mato Grosso's 2014 soybean planting is 1.7% complete versus 0.3% a week ago and 0.7% a year ago. They estimated Mato Grosso;s total soybean area at 8.8 million ha. Lanworth tweaked higher its forecast for the 2014 US soybean yield to 47.1 bu/acre from 47.0 bu/acre previously, and estimated production at 3.880 billion bushels, up from 3.873 billion previously. After the close the USDA said that this year's US harvest was now 10% complete versus the 5-year average of 17%. They said that 69% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to 71% on average. They raised good to excellent crop conditions 1 point from a week ago to 72% versus only 53% a year ago. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.23 1/2, up 13 1/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.32 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $308.10, up $0.90; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.79, up 87 points.
Corn: The corn market was a couple of cents firmer on what also looks like position squaring ahead of tomorrow's quarterly grain stocks report. Trade estimates for that are around 1.020-1.294 billion bushels. Weekly export inspections were 601,825 MT. Big crops get bigger is the old adage, and Lanworth agreed, raising its estimate for 2014 US corn yields to 174.9 bu/acre from 174.5 bu/acre previously. The firm now put 2014 US corn production at 14.596 billion bushels, up from its previous forecast of 14.564 billion, and a record high. "Good yields and favourable weather remain the key components offering resistance to this market," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The corn market often posts its seasonal lows in October. The USDA reported after the close that this year's US corn harvest is only 12% complete versus 23% for the 5-year average. That's considerably less progress than some had been forecasting, with around 20% done being mentioned in some quarters. It is in fact an increase of only 5 points on a week ago. Fortunately the 6-10 day forecast is reasonably warm and dry. The USDA left good to excellent crop conditions unchanged on a week ago at 74%. They said that 60% of the crop is mature versus 70% for the 5-year average and that the crop is 96% dented, which is one point behind the norm at this time. Ukraine said that they'd harvested 5 MMT of corn so far, with the Russian harvest standing at 4.3 MMT to date. The UAE bought 120,000 MT of soft wheat, 15,000 MT of hard wheat, 40,000 MT of corn and 30,000 MT of feed barley for Feb-May shipment over the weekend. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.25 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.38 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on all three exchanges. "Pre-report trading in US wheat futures saw a round of profit-taking overnight and a nice recovery from lower trade early in the session," said Benson Quinn. Trade estimates for tomorrow's Sept 1 US all wheat stocks are around 2.004 to 2.075 billion bushels. The USDA will also report on US wheat production. Trade estimates for all wheat are averaging 2.037 billion bushels. The range of estimates are 2.004-2.075 billion versus the USDA's August estimate of 2.030 billion and the 2013 all wheat crop of 2.130 billion. Weekly export inspections came in at a fair 537,647 MT. Taiwan seeks 80,000 MT of US milling wheat for Nov-Dec shipment and Oman are tendering for 60,000 MT of what is expected to be German or Russian wheat for Jan shipment. Russian wheat prices are said to be in decline, catching up with cheaper offers out of Europe and the US. SovEcon pegged FOB prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein in the deep-water ports on the Black Sea at $237/tonne, down $8.50 on the week, according to Reuters. ABARES estimated Australia’s 2014/15 wheat crop at 24.234 MMT versus 27 MMT a year ago. After the close the USDA said that this year's US spring wheat harvest is winding down at 94% done, up from 86% a week ago, but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Winter wheat planting is 43% done versus 25% a week ago and 36% on average at this time. The crop is 14% emerged, which is 2 points ahead of the average. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.81 1/4, up 7 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.66 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.40, up 6 3/4 cents.
