Nogger's Blog

10/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mixed ahead of tomorrow's upcoming USDA report. It looks like most have positioned themselves where they want to be heading into that, as there wasn't a great deal of change in prices at the end of the day and the day's trading range was relatively narrow, on beans at least. Meal was a bit more volatile, especially on the soon to expire Sep 14 contract. The new crop benchmark Nov 14 soybean contract managed to trade as high as $9.99/bushel, but couldn't break through the $10/bu barrier, which could be significant the longer it holds below that mark. "News today remained bearish with yield reports coming out of the south monstrous and weather threats seen nominal at best," said Benson Quinn Commodities. They predict a cautious increase in US soybean yields tomorrow, up from 45.4 bu/acre in August to around 46.3 bu/acre this time round, with the real "meat in the sandwich" saved up for the October WASDE report when the USDA will have much more actual harvest data to go on. Yields could eventually end up around the 47-48 bu/acre mark it is thought. The average trade estimate for US soybean production tomorrow is 3.883 billion bushels, with US ending stocks rising from 136 million bu in 2013/14 to 453 million in 2014/15. World carryout in 2014/15 is seen at a record 87.24 MMT. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $10.71, down 5 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.93 3/4, up 1 cent; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $442.80, down $10.90; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 31.58, down 1 point.

Corn: The corn market closed around 1-2 cents firmer heading into tomorrow's WASDE report. As with beans, it looks like the trade has already sorted out where it wants to position itself for this event. Last week's excitement over the possibility of a yield damaging freeze proved to be short lived. "The potential for a significant frost/freeze event tends to be relegated to areas not considered key corn and soybean producing regions in extreme NW regions of the corn belt," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The average trade guess for tomorrow's USDA report sees US corn yields at 170.74 bu/acre, with production at 14.29 billion bushels. The USDA's August estimates were 167.4 bu/acre and 14.032 billion bushels. US corn ending stocks are seen rising from 1.19 billion bushels in 2013/14 to just over 2 billion in 2014/15. World corn carryout at the end of 2014/15 is forecast at an average of 190.34 MMT versus the USDA's August estimate of 187.82 MMT. AGPM today estimated the 2014 French corn crop at a record 17.25 MMT. FranceAgriMer estimated French 2014/15 corn ending stocks at 3.9 MMT, the highest in 18 seasons and up 68.4% versus 2013/14. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina's 2014/15 corn plantings at 3.7 million hectares, down 700,000 hectares versus 2013/14. China's Ag Ministry said that rain in the last 10 days of August had ended drought in northern and northeast China, which may ultimately boost corn yields there. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.38 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.45 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower. Tomorrow's USDA report is thought likely to be more about corn and soybeans than it is for wheat, although we've said that before and been wrong! The average trade estimate for US wheat ending stocks in 2014/15 is 667 million bushels, little different to last month's 663 million. World 2014/15 ending stocks are seen at 193.75 MMT, from within a range of estimates of 189.42-203.00 MMT, and again little changed from the USDA's August estimate of 192.96 MMT. Russia's harvest juggernaut rumbles on, they've now produced 83.6 MMT of grains this year off barely more than two thirds of the combinable area. They continue to be very active in the export market. Rusagrotrans said that the country exported a record 4.7 MMT of grains in August. Local wheat prices in Russia are said to be holding up quite well on the back of strong demand, from both the export and domestic market, and the weak rouble. Russian feed wheat prices are said to be being supported by good interest from the expanding domestic livestock sector following the introduction of sanctions by the West. Russia's Ag Ministry estimated the country's 2014/15 grain exports at 30.0 MMT, up 18.6% versus 2013/14 exports of 25.3 MMT. FranceAgriMer said that French wheat exports to non-EU destinations would drop by more than a third to only 8 MMT in 2014/15. They see French wheat ending stocks rising to a 12 year high of 3.9 MMT, an increase of two thirds versus 2013/14. Portions of Canada saw killing frost overnight, according to Benson Quinn Commodities. How much damage has been done remains to be seen. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.05 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.14, down 10 1/4 cents.