Chicago Beans, Meal And Corn Jump, Wheat Remains A Follower
27/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed sharply higher, with the latter leading the way. The soymeal cash market is very tight on a spot basis with rail freight logistic problems in the east turning nearby demand over to trucks in double buying, as the end-user looks to secure needs in the short run, said Benson Quinn Commodities. Strong demand for meal equals strong demand for beans, and growers are reluctant to sell at current levels having got used to "beans in the teens" over the last few years. International demand is strong too, and the late planting in Brazil is only serving to extend the period in which the US must keep the rest of the world supplied with beans. The USDA announced 120,000 MT of US beans sold to China, along with 110,500 MT sold to unknown destinations for 2014/15 shipment. Weekly export inspections were also extremely robust, topping 2 MMT for the second week running. AgRural said that 16% of the Brazilian 2014/15 soybean crop has been planted, up from 10% a week ago, but well behind 34% a year ago. "Despite pretty good rain last week, the October rainfall deficit is still daunting in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top soybean state, ranging from 50 to 200 mm," said Martell Crop Projections. "The forecast has suddenly become very wet in central Brazil. Three-five inches of rain is predicted this week in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraguay with recurring strong thunderstorms. This would increase field moisture for soybean planting and germination. Less significant rainfall is predicted in southeastern Brazil in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul," they added. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentine soybean plantings at a record 20.6 million hectares versus 20.35 million a year ago. They said that the crop is 2% planted. After the close the USDA reported the 2014 US soybean harvest had advanced from 53% done a week ago to 70% complete as of Sunday night. Crop condition ratings for beans have now ceased. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.06, up 45 1/2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.12 3/4, up 29 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $376.80, up $34.70; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.23, down 16 points.
Corn: The corn market posted double digit gains in spillover support from soaring beans and meal. "Although Friday’s poor close and what appeared to be routine harvest selling offered pressure to the row crop markets overnight, corn and soybeans failed to attract enough follow-through selling to offset support from the soymeal market," said Benson Quinn Commodities. They also noted that "the idea that capital is rotating into the US Ag sector is valid with funds favouring the buy side". This simply appears to be one of those days where the trade was only interested in anything bullish, bearish factors (and there were some) were simply ignored or brushed aside. Weekly export inspections were no more than OK at 702,906 MT. Reuters confirmed last week's reports that UK feed wheat was being shipped into the US south east, competing with corn in the feed ration. MARS estimated 2014 EU corn yields at 7.59 MT/ha versus 6.75 MT/ha a year ago. "Summer crop yields at EU-28 level are high and corn yields in Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria are forecast more than 25 % above the five year average," they noted. Record production is expected in Europe as well as the US this year. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that 32.8% of the Argentine corn area is planted versus 30% a week ago and 26.8% a year ago. The USDA said that 46% of the US corn crop has now been harvested versus 31% a week ago and 65% for the 5-year average. Crop condition ratings were left unchanged at 74% good to excellent. They said that 96% of the crop is mature versus 93% a week ago and 97% on average at this time. "A warm ridge of high pressure has dominated the Central United States over the past 7-10 days, warding off showers and promoting strong harvesting. Midwest rainfall last week averaged only 0.20 inch, the smallest weekly amount in 3 months. Temperatures last week were 4-5 F above normal, increasing evaporation and enhancing crop drying. Showers are expected to get under way tonight in the Upper Midwest, Midwest, Illinois and Indiana, spreading south and eastward into the Mid South. Clearing is predicted Thursday. However, a second wave of showers is predicted in the Midwest on the weekend," said Martell Crop Projections. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.63, up 10 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, up 10 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with relatively modest gains compared to corn and beans. "Wheat is at best a follower," said Benson Quinn. They again noted "talk of capital rotating out of the energies and into the Ag sector". That's certainly plausible, with WTI crude slipping below $80/barrel again at one point yesterday. Weekly export sales of only 212,575 MT offered zero encouragement. Neither did apparent confirmation from Reuters of last week's rumours that the US is importing feed wheat from the UK. The Russian grain harvest now stands at 107.3 MMT off 42.9 million hectares (95% of the anticipated area). Wheat accounts for 61.2 MMT of that total, also off 95% of the planned area. Winter grain planting (mostly wheat) is now 99% complete, say the Ministry. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that their 2014/15 grain exports now stand at 11.2 MMT, an increase of 31% versus a year ago. That total includes 6.3 MMT of wheat, 3.2 MMT of barley and 1.6 MMT of corn. A year ago exports were 5.1 MMT of wheat, 1.8 MMT of barley and 1.6 MMT of corn. The Ukraine Ag Ministry are still forecasting what looks like an ambitious full season grain export total of a record 33 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that the Argentine wheat harvest is 2.4% complete versus 1% a year ago. They forecast production this year at 11.5 MMT versus 10.1 MMT a year ago. "Kazakhstan is reportedly buying Russian wheat in response to potentially up to 4 MMT of production in that country that won’t get harvested this fall," said Benson Quinn. Yet the Kazakh Ministry say that this year's grain harvest has reached 16.2 MMT out of an anticipated 17 MMT total. Traders report that wheat quality, especially in the north of Kazakhstan, is quite poor this year. Meanwhile "wheat growing regions of the FSU have tended to be too dry and too cold to foster good early development, which could result in issues next spring," note Benson Quinn. The USDA reported winter wheat planting in the US for the 2015 harvest at 84% complete, up from 76% a week ago, and exactly in line with the 5-year average. Winter wheat emergence is at 67%, up from 56% a week ago, and 5 points ahead of the norm. Crop conditions were placed at 59% good to excellent in the first ratings report of the season. It was 61% a year ago. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.22 3/4, up 5 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.94 3/4, up 1 cent; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.71 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents.
