Nogger's Blog

22/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small losses, despite the USDA reporting the sale of 419 TMT of US soybeans to China, along with 113 TMT to unknown destinations. Talk of meal sales being switched to cheaper South American origin material was bearish. Chinese customs data puts September bean imports at just over 5 MMT, a 7% rise on a year ago. Of that total 3.4 MMT came from Brazil, 980 TMT from Argentina and nothing from the US. They also imported 495 TMT of rapeseed, more than double the volume shipped in in September 2013. Oil World cut 3 MMT off it's Brazilian 2014/15 soybean production estimate to 89 MMT, although that's still a record it's not the huge leap that many had been expecting. Rains are finally on the way for Mato Grosso it would seem. "Mato Grosso is expected to receive very heavy rainfall later this week, 2-4 inches, with a strengthening monsoon circulation. This would be first important rainfall in October. Scattered showers are expected tomorrow in the leading soybean state. Without any significant rainfall, October temperatures have become very hot, Mato Grosso’s Center West area frequently reporting 40 C. Occasionally temperatures have reached 42 C (107 F). Once the rainy season begins in earnest, temperatures would moderate with increased cloudiness and evaporative cooling," said Martell Crop Projections. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around 1 MMT. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.62 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.69 3/4, down 2 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $338.00, down $4.90; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.14, up 38 points.

Corn: The corn market slipped 2-3 cents lower on a general lack of news. Weekly US ethanol production rose to 896,000 barrels/day from 885,000 barrels/day the previous week. Russia's corn harvest is said to be 73.6% done at 8.9 MMT, with yields at 4.56 MT/ha versus 5.29 MT/ha a year ago. Taiwan's MFIG bought 60,000 MT of Brazilian corn for December shipment. Chinese customs data shows that they only imported a little over 20 TMT of corn in September. Jan-Sep imports now stand at 1.6 MMT, around the same as a year previously. There's talk of China looking to buy 40 MMT of corn on the domestic market for state stocks. US weather forecasts are mostly dry for the next week, which should allow good harvest progress to be made. "Following hot temps and heavy winds light rains in the western belt overnight and into today aren’t going to cause many delays. Look for favourable temps over much of the corn belt. The potentially wetter conditions are advertised in the second week of the forecast," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Full season corn planting in Brazil should resume if and when the advertised delayed start to the rainy season arrives in the next few days. There's already talk though that delays in planting soybeans will lead to a reduction in second crop corn. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 650-800 TMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.53, down 3 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.67, down 2 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. There's talk of Argentina releasing an extra 400 TMT of old crop and 1 MMT of new crop wheat export licences. Much of that will probably end up in Brazil. Russia's wheat harvest has reached 94% complete at 60.9 MMT. Siberia is 92% done and there's talk that it may not get much higher than that with snow already falling there. There's also a suggestion that some crops in Kazakhstan will go unharvested this year with the sudden arrival of winter. The harvest there is said to be 86.4% done at 15.9 MMT on 13 million hectares. A harsh cold snap is on the cards for Russia this weekend. There are already rumblings that winter crops in Russia are poorly established and that leaves them vulnerable to higher than normal levels of winterkill. It's being suggested that current conditions in Russia are similar to late 2009. Wheat production in the summer of 2010 went on to be only 41.5 MMT on the back of a hard winter followed by a late spring/early summer drought and soaring temperatures. That event sent global wheat prices soaring you will recall. Adverse weather conditions are also having an effect on the Australian wheat crop this year, with some forecasting production as low as 20-21 MMT. China imported 133,647 MT of wheat in September, an 81% fall versus a year previously. Jan-Sep imports are just over 2.8 MMT, which is similar to the same period in 2013. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 400-500 TMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.22 1/4, up 3 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.05 1/4, up 3 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.68 3/4, down 1/4 cent.