Chicago Grains Bounce Higher
16/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on short-covering, although there was a general lack of fresh news to get excited about. US weather leans friendly for decent harvest progress to be made across the weekend. Crude oil dipped below $80/barrel at one point, but rallied later in the day to close at $82.70/barrel, which may have provided late support to beans. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimated Argentine soybean plantings at 20.6-20.9 million acres, up from 20.2 million last year. MDA CropCast left their forecast for the US 2014 soybean crop unchanged at 3.85 billion bushels. The Ukraine Stats Office said that the country had harvested 2.14 MMT of rapeseed, 7.72 MMT of sunseed and 2.47 MMT of soybeans so far this year. Weekly export sales data is due for release tomorrow, delayed a day due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. Trade estimates for soybean sales are around 650-750 TMT versus 923,400 MT a week ago. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.66 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.74 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $334.60, up $7.30; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.36, up 30 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents higher, with fund money seen covering in around 3,000 lots of their short. MDA CropCast held steady with their US 2014 corn production estimate at 14.547 billion bushels, saying that drier Midwest weather this week will have allowed for better harvest progress to be made. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimated corn plantings in Argentina down 16% this year at 3.7 million hectares. Russia said that it had harvested 7.7 MMT of corn so far off 63.9% of the planned area. Ukraine's corn harvest stands at 9.48 MMT to date. Spain said that they'd imported 740 TMT of corn in the first two months of the 2014/15 marketing year (Jul/Aug), a 37% rise year-on-year. Strategie Grains raised their forecast for the EU-28 2014 corn harvest by almost 2 MMT to 73.3 MMT, a 14% hike compared with a year ago. EU corn plantings in 2015 will fall 2%, they predict. The USDA reported the sale of 120 TMT of US corn to "unknown destinations" for 2014/15 delivery. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 1.2-1.5 MMT. The US Energy Dept reported ethanol production at 885k barrels/day, down from 901k a week ago. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.52 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.65 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with double digit gains across the three exchanges. Russia's 2014 wheat harvest now stands at 60.5 MMT off 22.9 million hectares, or 93% of the planted area. Yields are up 12.3% at 2.64 MT/ha. The Ukraine wheat harvest is over at 24.55 MMT, with barley production coming in at 9.3 MMT, said their Stats Office. Russian winter grain plantings are nearing completion at 96% done on 15.8 million ha. Ukraine winter wheat plantings are 93% done on 5.7 million hectares. Good rains are in the 14 day forecast for both. Russia only picked up 28,755 MT of grain at their regular intervention purchase round. The cumulative total to date is only 141,325 MT out of an intended target of 4-5 MMT. The Rosario Grain Exchange forecast the 2014 Argentine wheat harvest at 12 MMT, up 26% from a year ago. Harvesting of that takes place in Dec-Jan. Strategie Grains raised their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop from 146.6 MMT to 147.4 MMT, up 9% on a year ago. They also increased their EU-28 barley production estimate from 59.6 MMT to 59.9 MMT. They said that they expect soft wheat plantings for the 2015 harvest to hold steady at more than 24 million hectares. The 2015 EU barley area will drop 2%, they added. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 400-500 TMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.17, up 11 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.05, up 13 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.76 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents.
