Chicago Grains End Firmer, But Off Session Highs
28/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains, but well off the highs of the day. This could be attributed to month end profit-taking. Safras e Mercado said Brazil has planted 12.5% of their 2014/15 soybean crop versus 26% a year ago and 31% on average at this time. Leading producing state, Mato Grosso, is only 16% done versus 48% a year ago and on average, they said. Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean crop at 91.0 MMT. Dr Cordonnier cut his Brazilian crop estimate for next year to 93.0 MMT versus a previous forecast of 94.0 MMT, although that would still be a record. He pegged Argentina's crop at a record 56.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. He said that Argentina’s bean crop is 2-3% planted. He forecast US soybean yields this year at a record 47.5 bu/acre, with production at an all time high 3.96 billion bushels, both unchanged from previously. Argentina's September soybean crush was said to be 3.344 MMT, down 6.6% from a year ago. "Brazil rainfall is expected to sharply increase in the coming days the 5-day forecast calling for above normal rainfall in all key soybean states. A few strong showers occurred yesterday and very heavy rain along the Atlantic coast in Minas Gerais," said Martell Crop Projections. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.08, up 2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.15, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $375.10, down $1.70; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.79, up 56 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with modest gains, but ended closer to the lows of the day than the highs. The soybean and meal markets continue to lead the complex. "It still looks like the trade needs confirmation the soybean market is done going up and the process of putting new capital to work in corn is over," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Dr Cordonnier estimated US 2014 corn yields at a record 175 bu/acre, with production at an all time high 14.49 billion bushels, both unchanged from previously. He now has the Brazilian corn crop estimated at 73.0 MMT versus his previous estimate of 74.0 MMT. He also trimmed his estimate for the Argentine corn crop by 1 MMT to 21 MMT. He said that Argentina’s corn crop is 33% planted. Brazil's full season corn crop is said to be around 45% planted versus 65% normally at this time. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had harvested 2.1 million hectares of corn so far, or 78.4% of plan. That's produced a crop of 9.4 MMT to date (in bunker weight), with yields down from 5.29 MT/ha a year ago to 4.54 MT/ha. Russia said that it had exported 234 TMT of corn in Oct 1-22, and 544 TMT in the 2014/15 marketing year so far. Ukraine said that it had harvested 53.8 MMT of grains so far this year, including 17.9 MMT of corn. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.64 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.78, up 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains of around 5-8 cents on continued short-covering. Rabobank cut their forecast for the Australian wheat crop from 23.5 MMT to 23 MMT. Other trade estimates are in the 22-23 MMT region versus the official ABARES estimate of 24.23 MMT in September. Taiwan bought 41,250 MT of US wheat for Dec/Jan shipment. Iran bought 60,000 MT of Black Sea origin barley for November shipment. Canada said that it had exported 4.1 MMT of common wheat and 1.1 MMT of durum so far this marketing year, a rise of 10% and 20% respectively compared to a year ago. Despite sharply lower production in 2014, the large carryin left over from last year means that Canadian exports will remain high in 2014/15. These are forecast at 18.5 MMT for common wheat (versus 18.4 MMT a year ago) and 4.7 MMT for durum (versus 5.1 MMT). Russia said that it had exported over 14 MMT of grains so far this season, including 11.62 MMT of wheat and 1.76 MMT of barley. The Ministry there said that the 2014 grain harvest is now 95.3% done on 43 million hectares producing a crop of 107.4 MMT to date. Wheat accounts for 61.3 MMT of that total and barley a further 21 MMT. Russian winter grain plantings are 99% complete. Ukraine said that winter wheat planting there was 98% complete on 6.1 million hectares. Spain forecast their winter soft wheat area at 1.87 million hectares, an increase of 100k ha from a year ago. Algeria bought 300 TMT of durum wheat in a tender. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.30 3/4, up 8 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.02, up 7 1/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.76 3/4, up 5 cents.
