Chicago Soybeans Flat, But Wheat And Corn Rally
07/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed narrowly mixed as traders position themselves where they want to be heading into Friday's WASDE report from the USDA. A Reuters survey puts the average US soybean yield at 47.6 bu/acre this year, with production at just under 4 billion bushels. Yields last year were 43.3 bu/acre, with production at just under 3.3 billion bushels. "Daily volume was huge as funds covered shorts on technically rally and producer rewarded market with late day selling," said Benson Quinn Commodities. It looks like the producer is now viewing any rally attempt as a selling opportunity. Market talk continues to be "where the heck are we going to store all these beans and corn?" The delayed harvest may simply mean delayed harvest pressure. FCStone estimated the Brazilian 2014/15 soybean crop at a record 93.22 MMT. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.40 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.49 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $327.00, up $6.70; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.96, down 36 points.
Corn: The corn market posted decent gains for a second day. The average trade estimate for Friday's USDA report sees US 2014 corn production at a smidgen over 14.5 billion bushels, with the average yield estimate at 174.7 bu/acre. The USDA were at 14.395 billion bushels and 171.7 bu/acre in September. Production last year was 13.925 billion bushels and yields were 158.8 bu/acre, so these average estimates represent a production gain of 4% and a yield increase of 10% versus 2013. Informa estimated the world corn crop at 982.5 MMT, up from 974.2 MMT previously, although still 6 MMT less than a year ago and 5 MMT below where the USDA currently line up. FCStone estimated the Brazilian corn crop in 2014/15 at 76.97 MMT. A continued wet US weather forecast for next week will likely keep harvest pace behind schedule. Wheat futures rising back up above $5/bu added some support to corn today, as did a slightly weaker dollar. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.40 1/2, up 8 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.53 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with double digit gains across the three exchanges. Short covering ahead of Friday's USDA report was a feature. Quality concerns remain around the globe this year, even if quantity isn't a problem. Informa raised their estimate for the global wheat crop to a new all time high 726.1 MMT, which is more than 12 MMT up on last year and also 6.2 MMT above the USDA's current forecast. They have the US crop at 55.4 MMT versus 55.2 MMT from the USDA. They also see Brazil's crop rebounding by 40% compared to last year to a record 7.7 MMT. That will cut US exports to the region. The USDA currently only have the Brazilian 2014/15 wheat crop at 6.3 MMT. Informa now see the Russian wheat crop at 61 MMT, up 17% versus last year and 2 MMT more than the USDA. They also forecast China's wheat crop this year at 124.9 MMT, up 3 MMT from a year ago, although 1.1 MMT below the USDA. Europe's wheat crop was pegged at 153 MMT, up 3% from last year and 2.1 MMT higher than the USDA. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.06 1/4, up 14 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.88 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.65 1/2, up 13 3/4 cents.
