Chicago Grains Closing Comments - Monday

03/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower, giving up a good portion of Friday night's gains, despite weekly export inspections of a record 2.771 MMT. Export inspections are currently 17.4% up year on year versus USDA estimates for a 3% rise at the end of the season. Planting conditions in Brazil are finally improving. "Rainfall has increased in Mato Grosso improving conditions for soybean planting. The top soybean state Mato Grosso has received 90-120 millimeters of rainfall the past 10 days in the key Centre West area," said Martell Crop Projections. Safras e Mercado said on Friday that Brazilian bean planting is 22% complete versus 44% a year ago and 46% on average at this time. Mato Grosso is 35% complete versus 70% a year ago and 67% on average, they said. IMEA said as of October 31st Mato Grosso planting is 40.5% complete. Somar said that there was good rain coverage for Brazil’s main bean and corn areas over the weekend. The Brazilian Trade Ministry said that the country exported 740,800 MT of soybeans in October, around half the volume exported 12 months previously. The USDA said after the close that the US soybean harvest was 83% complete, up from 70% done a week ago and now in line with the 5-year average. FCStone forecast US soybean yields at 48.4 bu/acre, with production at 4.033 billion bushels. The USDA were 47.1 bu/acre and 3.927 billion bushels in October. Informa are due out tomorrow and the USDA next Monday. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.28 3/4, down 17 3/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.29 3/4, down 19 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $372.70, down $16.30; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 34.03, down 77 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower, not aided by low weekly export inspections of only 425,856 MT. The trade was expecting inspections of around 725-900 TMT. Two different Israeli groups are tendering for 145 TMT and 90 TMT of optional origin corn for Jan-March shipment. The Brazilian Trade Ministry said that the country exported 3,178,400 MT of corn in October versus 2,683,900 MT in September and 3,953,300 MT in October last year. The USDA said after the close that the 2014 US corn harvest had advanced 19 points since last week to 65% complete. FCStone estimated US 2014 corn yields at 178 bu/acre, with production at 14.783 billion bushels. Linn Group went for very similar numbers of 178.6 bu/acre and 14.842 billion bushels. The USDA were 174.2 bu/acre and 14.475 billion bushels in October. "Conditions in Argentina's southern farm belt have become sharply cooler, as temperatures in southern Buenos Aires fell into the mid 30's F the morning of November 1. This is a set-back for corn growth and development. Buenos Aires is Argentina's leading farm province growing the lion's share of corn. Not only are conditions cold but also fields are extremely wet from recurring strong showers. Rain has developed on a daily basis since October 24, building up a large soil moisture surplus. Conditions have been continuously wet the past 2-3 months," said Martell Crop Projections. The Ukraine corn harvest has now reached almost 20 MMT. Ukraine corn exports via seaports accounted for 53% of all shipments for the week through to Sunday night, up sharply from only 12% a week previously. "Corn markets have yet to break below the 100 day moving average. Trade below this level should trigger additional selling and may change the attitude of a fund community that has typically favoured the buy side," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.86, down 3 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market did its best to ignore the negative influences of falling corn and soybeans and closed higher on all three exchanges. "It felt like beginning of the month buying offered support at points during the session and into the close," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Egypt's GASC bought 60,000 MT of French wheat for December shipment over the weekend. Russian wheat was comfortably out-priced as was Romanian origin. It's a little surprising that they only bought one cargo, which may suggest that they are well covered, or a lack of cash. My money would be on the latter. An Israeli group are tendering for 25,000 Mt of optional origin feed wheat for Jan-Feb shipment. Macquarie estimated Russia’s 2014/15 wheat crop at 61.5 MMT, falling to 54.0 MMT in 2015/16. Weekly US wheat export inspections of only 208,706 MT were pretty miserable. The Kazakhstan Ag Ministry said that the country had harvested 90.5% of their 2014 grain crop. There's talk that at least some of the remaining 9.5% won't get harvested at all, at least not this year, with heavy snow and rain hindering Kazakh farmers' best efforts. The USDA said that US growers had now planted 90% of their winter wheat for the 2015 harvest, up 84% a week ago and one point ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence is at 77%, up 10 points versus last week and 5 points ahead of normal for this time. Crop conditions were unchanged on last week at 59% good to excellent, but down compared to 63% this time last year. Canadian wheat was said to be the lowest offer in an Iraqi tender which closed over the weekend for at least 50 TMT of hard wheat. Recent heavy rains in Argentina wheat areas could be disrupting the wheat harvest, and may also be causing come quality/yield issues. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.38 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.97 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.77, up 2 3/4 cents.