Chicago Grains Lower Across The Board

19/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal fell hard, closing more or less at session lows. "Market sentiment seems to be shifting to one of risk reduction with December first notice day for meal and soyoil a week from Friday and market getting in the silly season of thin holiday markets and year-end positioning," said Benson Quinn Commodities. We have month end coming up, and next Thursday is Thanksgiving so the US markets will be shut, and Friday will be a bit of a write off too, so any book squaring that wants doing really needs completing prior to that. Demand for US beans still remains strong though. The USDA announced 125,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2014/15 shipment. Monday's weekly export inspections were at record levels, and tomorrow brings the usual weekly export sales report. Various trade estimates are that for beans these will be back below 1 MMT for the first time in a month following last week's rally. Personally I'm not so sure that they will. Lanworth estimated US 2014 soybean yields at 47.8 bu/acre, unchanged from their previous estimate and an all time high. There's good rains in the forecast for most of Brazil in the week ahead. These will certainly be welcome in the top soybean producing state of Mato Grosso, although maybe less so in the already wet number 2 and 3 leading soybean states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Ukraine said that they'd brought in a record 3.8 MMT of soybeans this year, much of that will likely be heading to Europe. Bean futures prices look like they are shaping up to test the $10/bu level again. With cash prices now back into single figures, producer selling has eased up by all accounts. Meal suddenly looks to be the weakest link, with the basis dropping sharply as more sales are switched to South American origin. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.04 3/4, down 18 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.12, down 19 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $370.40, down $7.60; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.51, down 14 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with near double digit losses, not helped by wheat throwing in the towel. Monday's weekly export inspections were fairly poor, and tomorrow's weekly export sales are only expected to be relatively modest too - in the region of 400-700 TMT. "While I feel technicals have had as much influence as fundamentals on the recent break, if there’s a supportive fundamental feature in the corn market it isn’t apparent. The corn is still standing in the fields argument isn’t getting any traction and rightly so. The harvested acreage estimates are too high argument has some supporters but hasn’t gained much traction either," said Benson Quinn. Lanworth estimated this year's US corn yield at 174.7 bu/acre, down from a previous estimate of 175.7 bu/acre, but still easily a record. The Ukraine Economy Ministry raised their forecast for this year's corn crop in the country to 28 MMT, forecasting exports at 20.2 MMT versus a previous estimate of 17.9 MMT. Abundant summer rainfall across much of Europe means that the EU-28 corn crop is set to reach a record volume of 70 MMT or more this year. The rains also mean that there are some quality issues around however. South Korea's Kocopia bought 55,000 MT of optional origin corn for March shipment. South Korea's KFA bought 50,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan-March shipment. South Korea's MFG bought 50,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb-March shipment. Weekly ethanol production data from the U Energy Dept had output at 970,000 barrels/day last week, the biggest week since June and a decent 36,000 bpd rise on the previous week. ADM are said to be suing Syngenta over the rejection of US GMO corn by China over the last 12 months. The lawsuit alleges that Syngenta commercialised the MIR162 corn variety "without creating an effective stewardship program to ensure the grain would not be shipped to markets that have not approved it," according to a report on Reuters. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.63 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.76, down 9 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges, with Chicago wheat coming off the worst. It hasn't been a good week for wheat so far. Monday's export inspections were extremely poor, and news that French feed wheat is now following UK origin material across the Atlantic and into the US east coast is also bearish. The world is buying/tendering for wheat, it's just that the US offer isn't picking up much of the business. The Philippines are shopping for 116,400 MT of feed wheat from Australia, the EU or the Black Sea region for March-May shipment. Jordan bought 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat for April/May shipment. Tunisia bought 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat (most likely French origin) for Dec-Jan shipment. They also booked 50,000 MT of optional origin feed barley (also most likely to be of French origin) for Dec–Jan shipment. Qatar bought 20,000 MT of Australian origin milling wheat for January shipment. There are also reports that China has been buying feed and malting barley from Australia, the Black Sea region and Europe over the past couple of weeks. Dr Cordonnier reported that the Brazilian wheat crop in the state of Rio Grande do Sul is "a disaster" - being both low in yield and quality following a persistently wet growing season. Harvesting in the state is now 75% complete, and losses in some areas are in the 30-60% region, with yields only averaging 1.2-1.5 MT/ha, he says. That may provide something of an opportunity for US wheat, although Argentina's crop is looking like being much larger this year than the previous two. They are also able to export wheat to Brazil under preferential terms, being inside the Mercosur trade bloc, so they should be the main beneficiary of increased Brazilian imports. The current sharp freeze hitting the US should not be too much of a problem for winter wheat on the Great Plains, but could be more of an issue for Midwest soft red wheat, where planting was seriously delayed, cutting short the "hardening" period, say Martell Crop Projections. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.37 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.86 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.71 1/2, down 7 cents.