Chicago Grains Rise, Led By Soybeans And Meal
11/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans jumped to 3-month highs and meal rose above $400 as yesterday's USDA report was cast aside as history and the market chose to focus on very strong demand for both and continuing logistical issues. CONAB estimated the Brazilian 2014/15 soybean crop at 89.3-91.7 MMT versus a previous forecast of 88.8-92.4 MMT and production a year ago of 86.1 MMT. Even taking the high end, that's still below yesterday's USDA forecast of 94 MMT though. Brazil exported only 0.74 MMT of soybeans in October, down sharply from 2.67 MMT in September and also well below the 1.5 MMT shipped out in October 2013, according to Oil World. They also said that Argentina's soybean crush in September was 3.3 MMT versus 3.49 MMT in August and compared to 3.58 MMT a year previously. Their Jan-Sep crush total is now 29.1 MMT versus 27 MMT in the same period in 2013. Late soybean plantings in Brazil are pushing their harvest back, keeping demand with the US for longer than anticipated. Oil World said that US soybean exports need to rise by at least 3 MMT to 41 MMT in Sep 14 - Feb 15 to satisfy world demand. Chinese soybean imports are seen rising to 6.2 MMT in November and 7 MMT in December, according to local industry analysts. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.66 1/2, up 39 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.64, up 38 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $400.60, up $19.70; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.87, up 51 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents firmer. Spillover support from the soycomplex was a feature. With 20% of the US 2014 corn crop still to be harvested, the market is looking at a sharp cold spell coming up. "The US forecast calls for temperatures 15-20 F below average in the week ahead. The bitter cold would affect 80% of the lower 48 states. This translates into daily mean temperatures of 0 F to -10 F in Montana and 10 F -25 F in Iowa. This sort of cold is typical of late December, but is developing 6 weeks early. The 6-10 day forecast keeps a cold weather outlook though the core of coldest air would shift east. High population centres in the Great Lakes and Northeast United States would be subject to the bitter cold, increasing natural gas and heating oil consumption," said Martell Crop Projections. CONAB pegged the 2014/15 Brazilian corn crop at 77.3-78.9 MMT versus a previous estimate of 76.6-78.9 MMT and last year's production of 79.9 MMT. Some are already suggesting that they are over-estimating safrinha corn plantings, due to the lateness of soybean sowings. Oil World said that Brazil had exported 3.18 MMT of corn in October versus 3.95 MMT in September and shipments of 2.68 MMT a year previously. Russia said that it had harvested 10.2 MMT of corn off 85.5% of the planned area. Ukraine said that it had exported 2.72 MMT of corn so far this season. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.73 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market put in a decent rally, aided by firmer corn and soybeans. The Argentine wheat harvest continues to be hampered by rains late in the season. These could be causing both yield and quality issues, with yields potentially down by "at least 10%" in the hardest hit areas, according to Dr Cordonnier. There are similar issues also in southern Brazil, where the harvest is about halfway done in Rio Grande do Sul. CONAB today cut their forecast for this year's Brazilian wheat crop from 7.7 MMT to 7.0 MMT. Canada said that it had exported 4.73 MMT of wheat so far this season (to Nov 2), a 14% rise on a year ago. The USDA's FAS in Canada said that despite wheat production 27% lower than a year ago at 27.5 MMT, exports in 2014/15 would only fall a relatively modest 2% to 22.5 MMT due to the very high level of carryover stocks from last year's record crop. Ending stocks this season will be reduced by 45% to 5.38 MMT, they said. Russia said that it had harvested 61.7 MMT of wheat off 96.8% of the planned area. Much of what remains to be harvested is now under snow. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that growers there had beaten their forecast for winter wheat plantings of 6.2 million hectares by sowing 6.3 million ha, up from 6.1 million ha a year ago. They said that the country had exported almost 13 MMT of grains so far this season, a more than 20% rise on a year ago. That volume includes 6.86 MMT of wheat. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.25 1/4, up 8 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.78 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.66 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents.
